tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post608180121388429699..comments2024-02-29T05:39:45.179-07:00Comments on CURL WITH MATH: Giving Away Points at the Canadian OpenKevin Palmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09511486508859362103noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-86976402805745042822014-12-17T16:23:54.847-07:002014-12-17T16:23:54.847-07:00Hello Kevin,
Thank you for all your efforts on th...Hello Kevin,<br /><br />Thank you for all your efforts on this blog, I have been a huge fan since day one as you know. I have used the information gained here as both a player and a coach.<br /><br />I am pretty sure Steve was "right" or at least not wrong. While watching the game the shot was called and instantly the announcers where all over him, " I like to be winning" and many other comments like this. Sounded a lot like "trust your defense" <br /><br />When I am making a choice that is potentially going to drastically change my WE I want to hear "Trust my stats guy" <br /><br />Hopefully in part 2 you can do the proper math, but I had a robo perfect drawing Steve needing to win in 8 tied with hammer 90% of the time to make hitting correct. <br />@85% on the draw in 7 he would need to win tied in 8 84% of the time<br />@ 75% on the draw in 7 he would need to win 78% of the time.<br /><br />All seems pretty reasonable to me.<br /><br />Couple that with the fact that like you mention 2 down without playing 8 is a spot that is changed the most by the 5 rock rule. (Currently 10% WE)<br /><br />In that scenario upping your chance to get three greatly changes the overall WE ( admittedly a change from 10% - 14% would be considered massive ) and most people believe that the 5 rock rule will increase 3's scored in these situations.<br /><br />When 2 is scored the fact that elite teams lose very few extra ends these days comes into play.<br /><br />I think this is a call that will be considered standard in 4 years, and makes for a great topic to speak about now.<br /><br />All the best,<br /><br />Jason GunnlaugsonJason Gunnlaugsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379811108237902154noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-88109451209700938952014-12-17T16:09:25.964-07:002014-12-17T16:09:25.964-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jason Gunnlaugsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379811108237902154noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-65772739110145141752014-12-17T14:39:26.819-07:002014-12-17T14:39:26.819-07:00Also, I found that photo of Bob Pickering, but I w...Also, I found that photo of Bob Pickering, but I was looking for the shot og him lifting his rock on the backswing. Strange there's nothing online. Would make the modern no-lift player cringe.Kevin Palmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07856697089223162035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-53767477126741477182014-12-17T14:34:13.646-07:002014-12-17T14:34:13.646-07:00It is possible I'm too polite, but there are m...It is possible I'm too polite, but there are many ifs in this analysis with less hard numbers than we would like. But in the same way stats folks felt bunting was originally a poor decision, later analysis then showed that it can be under certain circumstances. You've made me consider wirtting a part 2 that includes some more math to break these decisions down further. Stay tuned.Kevin Palmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07856697089223162035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-60166741783574250702014-12-17T06:26:14.282-07:002014-12-17T06:26:14.282-07:00You're too polite, Kevin. At best a skip sacri... You're too polite, Kevin. At best a skip sacrifices five percent of win expectancy in exchange for the reassurance of having final stone. Maybe for most players a WE swing < 10% is seen as trivial, because it's single digits?<br /><br /> Five to ten percent is enormous imo. Trading that for momentum or emotional security of hammer seems similar in reason to NFL coaches choosing to punt on 4th & 3 at the opponent's 40. Risk aversion.<br /><br /> Anecdotally, it sure does seem like five rock will lead to an increased number of 2+ ends tho.<br /><br /> Great work as always.<br /><br /> http://www.saskcurl.com/sca/honourroll/gallery/TEAM%20-%20BOB%20PICKERING%20TEAM%20-%201968,70%20&%2071.jpg<br />Dalke Geedznoreply@blogger.com