tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-44415785812149133952024-03-13T07:43:29.236-06:00CURL WITH MATHSTRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF CURLING USING STATISTICSKevin Palmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09511486508859362103noreply@blogger.comBlogger225125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-1487076727358555452024-02-26T23:50:00.006-07:002024-02-26T23:58:27.091-07:00<p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Managing the Ninth End: Canadian Open Women's Final</span></b></p><p>Avid watchers of prestige television know the penultimate episode is often the most exciting to watch.</p><p>A finale provides the denouement; wrapping up loose ends and closing out the story arc of the season or series. It’s the episode before the finale which provides the cliffhanger or plot twist, usually filled with the most suspense and action that can fit into 60 minutes.</p><p>The second to last end of a close curling game often provides greater tension and drama than the final frame. One down with last rock (“hammer”) in the last end is a straightforward path—do everything you can to score two points. No shot for two on your last throw? Try to take one and hope to steal in the extra end.</p><p>In the same situation just one end earlier, tactical choices can be complicated and taking the wrong turn could flip a team from heavy favourite to long-shot underdog.</p><p>Rachel Homan’s team was in this unenviable position against Silvana Tirinzoni’s Swiss side during the championship final of the Canadian Open. Down 3-2 in the seventh end, Team Homan talked through their choices on skip’s first stone. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgUMUUrvmX8kE47dPuXmDzhRAV9iGgTXXbNhtIH9ZL9CMWLKhiij0PTDRmvvBKl1i56b1IHjakLm-x1P0Sasg7gdz0pH-yJlM_2tgpyuTBpKqyKWp0FFtOjgWRMOsOS7kqFaRjFVNwHUf5YTaJBAiakT0xXTTTQSKKjloMbZY-hOHTXIKGhTQoMYOXBt0s" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="700" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgUMUUrvmX8kE47dPuXmDzhRAV9iGgTXXbNhtIH9ZL9CMWLKhiij0PTDRmvvBKl1i56b1IHjakLm-x1P0Sasg7gdz0pH-yJlM_2tgpyuTBpKqyKWp0FFtOjgWRMOsOS7kqFaRjFVNwHUf5YTaJBAiakT0xXTTTQSKKjloMbZY-hOHTXIKGhTQoMYOXBt0s" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: left;">They could hit the Tirinzoni stone mostly buried in the back eight-foot rings and roll away from the centre line. They could freeze to the stone, but it would be below the button and Tirinzoni could draw in and sit shot rock, making it probable they would be forced to a single point.</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;">Ultimately, they decide to draw top four foot, attempting to score a deuce.</p><p style="text-align: left;">WAIT! Coach Don Bartlett calls a timeout and declares he wants hammer in the final end.</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFNxF1QRWY_mWvPIUl7k2hOMxw7RjDzd30TdzfwhL1aq9hA7UEMPMnRljd-S-psMnJjUA3t8TOdTLc7ja7OsJ2XJkCNy2vAVEsVhhN8_MUzoxbSdILJJ5uetsEGQAiXOmsKGkcLX9uHpczd9ruC3BN9PPSRFyOxgz5b_-V721g30VjleOPPKvk6bzrSzs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="388" data-original-width="700" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFNxF1QRWY_mWvPIUl7k2hOMxw7RjDzd30TdzfwhL1aq9hA7UEMPMnRljd-S-psMnJjUA3t8TOdTLc7ja7OsJ2XJkCNy2vAVEsVhhN8_MUzoxbSdILJJ5uetsEGQAiXOmsKGkcLX9uHpczd9ruC3BN9PPSRFyOxgz5b_-V721g30VjleOPPKvk6bzrSzs" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">The squad went with his suggestion and switched their decision to a hack-weight hit. They removed the Tirinzoni stone but rolled out of the rings, leaving Swiss fourth thrower Alina Pätz the same shot they had originally planned.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Her outturn draw buried perfectly, sitting on the button. Rachel chose the runback in an attempt to blank the end, and missed.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Homan is now two down with hammer heading to the eighth and final end.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Where to begin?</p><p style="text-align: left;">If Rachel hits and rolls to the open, it’s not certain Tirinzoni will choose to hit. The Homan squad know this and discuss the likelihood their opponent will instead draw around the centre guard. Sportsnet analysts Mike Harris and Joan McCusker mention it as well, referring to a similar situation in the fourth end of the men’s final.</p><p style="text-align: left;">One of my earliest Curl With Math blogposts examined this common scenario of being one up without hammer in the next to last end. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Essentially, the math indicates it is preferable for the non-hammer team to be aggressive, attempting a force or steal at the risk of giving up a deuce.</p><p style="text-align: left;">When watching this situation in recent years, extreme curl and lively rocks have usually forced the non-hammer team to hit the open stone rather than risk the draw. Most often the team with hammer can easily remove a perfectly buried stone and collect their deuce. The centre guard must be in a perfect position, and preferably a friendly colour. In the case for Tirinzoni (and Bruce Mouat in the men’s final) the centre line guard was ideal and the ice conditions, swingy but not excessive, allowed for a well-thrown draw to make things difficult for an opponent.</p><p style="text-align: left;">What should Team Homan do in this situation?</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgD4j92yPy9HGIIOnAfnxgrfr-5lJ-YuRJXUvlmKweDvfZYeE_E_aOgg08-yXkDZP9t5WZ7VL9uqQRNlmTtQWQFt5XUAJHPhLmSZ_oaM_vX59jam0Rs-Iz4_5LH95izWZhy1RFBUeEQGsuH5SqExFM1NsFEdC8eXqRLWRQLiqWufSoF43hAFCAsNejMBBo" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="700" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgD4j92yPy9HGIIOnAfnxgrfr-5lJ-YuRJXUvlmKweDvfZYeE_E_aOgg08-yXkDZP9t5WZ7VL9uqQRNlmTtQWQFt5XUAJHPhLmSZ_oaM_vX59jam0Rs-Iz4_5LH95izWZhy1RFBUeEQGsuH5SqExFM1NsFEdC8eXqRLWRQLiqWufSoF43hAFCAsNejMBBo" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">Beginning the end, scoring three or more is the preferred result, but that’s not a consideration now with three rocks remaining. Common thinking for the team one down in the penultimate end is “please just let me have an easy blank and let’s move on to the last end.” It’s not that teams want a blank, it’s simply the chance of being forced to a single point is too great and the reward for scoring two, and unlikelihood of three, is not substantial enough to encourage an aggressive strategy. Their opponent knows this, which is why they will counter with centre guards and attempt to force play to the middle, even at the risk of giving up two points.</p><p>Before Rachel’s first throw, statistics indicate the best result is to take two points and lead 4-3 heading to the eighth end without hammer. Consider some historic results …</p><p>For all women’s world ranking events from the last two years, five years and over a decade, win probability down one with hammer is about 39%. Looking at results over the past five years from games only between teams ranked in the top 25, it drops to 35%.</p><p>Looking at games between the top 10, it’s 36.6% … and between top five, 32%.</p><p>Now consider the five-year results of both skips. Homan has won 75% of the time when up one without and 59% when down one with hammer. Silvana is 68% and 56%, respectively. Both teams are—not surprisingly—really good and win more than they lose in either situation. The real puzzle to solve centres around what happens when these two specific teams play each other.</p><p>Digging into recent data between them, we find a very small sample size:</p><p>• 2022 Players’ Championship, with hammer and down one point, Homan scores a deuce to win 7-6</p><p>• 2021 Players’ Championship, Homan is one up without hammer and wins 5-3.</p><p>• 2018 Olympics, Homan is up one without hammer and wins 10-8 (Team Tirinzoni in PyeongChang did not include Alina Pätz).</p><p>The debate over one up or one down will rage on for as long as this sport exists. Many will never agree but to me, with teams of equal calibre, being one up without hammer is better than one down. However, the scenario does not provide assurances to either side. It’s essentially an uneven coin flip.</p><p>The problem with considering “we want hammer in the last end” is that regardless of the decision on Rachel’s first stone, Alina still has a final shot to influence what happens. The analysis for Homan should emphasize “what do we think Tirinzoni will call and what do we want Pätz to throw?”</p><p>If the Canadians believe Tirinzoni will always hit an open Homan stone, they likely should play Coach Bartlett’s call, a hack-weight hit. Most often they will be left with a simple blank, and occasionally Pätz will make a perfect hit and roll and Homan will have a runback or board-weight blank attempt.</p><p>If Homan believes—as Mike, Joan and I suspect—that Tirinzoni will draw around the centre guard, her decision is less clear.</p><p>A fascinating tactical choice that was not considered: If you know Tirinzoni will draw and you want to blank, the preferred call might be to hit and roll out, which is what actually happened.</p><p>Homan likely makes the runback over 80% of the time and in the instances where Pätz is unable to perfectly bury the stone, it’s an easy blank.</p><p>If Rachel’s first shot sticks around in the rings and Alina draws behind centre, the option to blank won’t be available.</p><p>Despite this, Team Homan does not appear to be pleased with the outcome of skip’s first stone.</p><p>Let’s move from the numbers to analyze body language. Watching on television, Team Homan appeared out of sorts and not in a position to execute to their optimum ability. Throughout the process—and particularly following the timeout—the squad seems uncertain of their direction, less assured with what they are trying to accomplish, and the result is two missed shots and a steal of one for Tirinzoni.</p><p>Using analytics can identify the correct mathematical decision but there are always other variables, and the choice is not always clear. More important than making the “right” call, effective communication can help a team align on common objectives and perform at their best.</p><p>Following Team Hasselborg’s gold medal at PyeongChang 2018, second Agnes Knochenhauer commented on their use of analytics.</p><p>“Firstly, it always comes down to how well we perform out there on the ice,” she said. “But what we could see when we started to work with the numbers was that our own performance in combination with the statistics gave us confidence in certain scenarios and patience in others. We’re using the statistics to put the four of us on the same path, so that we all know how to take on each opponent. It gives us strength and courage as a team.”</p><p>The appearance of uncertainty and lack of unified confidence in team strategy is what came across my TV screen at home. In hindsight, calling the timeout earlier, something they did consider, may have improved their focus on the task and helped with execution, regardless of which shot was called. To be clear, the analysis from my couch could be completely wrong. It’s entirely possible the Homan squad were comfortable and at ease with the situation as it unfolded.</p><p>Back to the math.</p><p>We considered the desired outcome; one up without hammer is a small preference over one down with hammer. Next to evaluate are the undesirable outcomes; being forced to a single point or surrender a steal. What are their chances of winning?</p><p>When tied without hammer and with one end to go, Homan wins 30% of the time, in line with numbers for all ranked games between the top 25 teams. However, Tirinzoni has an 88% winning percentage when tied with last stone, one of the best of any team on the World Curling Tour.</p><p>What about two up without hammer? Tirinzoni has won 92% of the time, well above the tour average of 84%.</p><p>The numbers indicate if Rachel cannot blank or take two points, she is choosing between two bad options. Considering these outcomes, I would lean towards being tied without hammer because of the sample size from all teams … but given Team Tirinzoni’s capabilities, it’s not an automatic decision and frankly, both outcomes stink.</p><p>Assuming Tirinzoni will ignore an open Homan stone and draw around the centre guard, if Homan is confident in the ice and her weight and can beat Pätz there, I prefer their original call to draw top four foot.</p><p>If Rachel is most or fully buried and shot stone, above the tee-line, Tirinzoni will be forced to a decision. She could have Alina attempt a runback attempt, pick out the Homan stone or follow the draw and hope to make Rachel’s final draw for two points as difficult as possible. A runback is unlikely to lead to a steal and more often a deuce or blank appears to be the result.</p><p>The risk for Homan is leaving the stone open enough that Pätz plays quiet hit weight and sits two, but in some instances this still might leave a possible double and roll out for the blank.</p><p>In the early days of the Curl With Math blog, this is the point where a graph, table and equation might show up to explain my analysis. No need to grab your abacus and you can keep the calculator in the drawer for now; I’ll summarize the results.</p><p>Given ice conditions, colour and location of the guard, Tirinzoni should, if Homan hits and sticks, ignore the open stone and draw behind the centre guard if Pätz can make the draw at least half of the time. It’s reasonable to assume that everyone, including Silvana and Rachel, expect her chances are higher. Based on that belief, Homan needs to make the come around draw as little as 40% of the time for it to be the correct call.</p><p>Ultimately, Team Homan pulled off the comeback from two down in the eighth end and stole the victory in the extra-end (!) against the four-time and reigning world champions.</p><p>Like most television episodes of your average sitcom, despite many hijinks and shenanigans over the first 20 minutes, everything worked out in the end.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p><span face="droid-serif, serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 15.6px;"><i><br /></i></span></p><p><span face="droid-serif, serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 15.6px;"><i>First published in The Curling News</i> </span><span style="font-size: 15.6px;"><span face="droid-serif, serif" style="color: #333333;"><a href="https://www.si.com/curling/strategy/that-curling-coach-timeout" target="_blank">https://www.si.com/curling/strategy/that-curling-coach-timeout</a></span></span></p><figcaption style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; line-height: 1.3em; max-width: 100%; opacity: 0.7; padding: 10px 10px 0px; position: static;"><span face="droid-serif, serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 15.6px;"><br /></span></figcaption><p></p>Kevin Palmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09511486508859362103noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-46605008933525064152022-03-01T05:08:00.001-07:002022-03-01T05:08:40.727-07:00Episode 76 - Don Lewis<iframe title="Libsyn Player" style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/22268366/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Don Lewis was an innovator. Being a curling icemaker in the 1970s was as much art as science. Don learned the craft in Saskatchewan, honed his skills with winter sojourns to Toronto in the early sixties and eventually became head icemaker for 14 Briers and 18 World Championships. He was inducted into the Canadian Curling Hall of Fame in 1989 and later joined the CCA board, becoming President in 2001. Don passed away August 11, 2021. Before talking to Don (29:40) Kevin talks with Warren Hansen about his new book "<a href= "https://www.warrenhansenauthor.com/about-the-book.html" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">Sticks 'n' Stones: The Battle for Curling to be an Olympic Sport...</a>". Warren also shares thoughts on Don Lewis and Larry Wood. A guest on <a href= "https://curling.libsyn.com/epsiode-55-larry-wood" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Episode 55</a>, Larry passed away on February 15, 2022. </p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.si.com/curling/curling-legends/curling-legends-episode-76-don-lewis">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-70299658363776233882022-02-11T14:07:00.001-07:002022-02-11T14:07:45.835-07:00CSI: 2018 Olympics Mens Semifinal TE8<iframe title="Libsyn Player" style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/21976373/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/21976373/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-18991199588735500282021-11-18T13:34:00.001-07:002021-11-18T13:34:21.521-07:00Gambling<iframe title="Libsyn Player" style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/21186935/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Ken Pomeroy of Kenpom.com and Gerry Geurts of CurlingZone return with host Kevin Palmer. They are joined by 2019 World Junior Champion Matt Hall, now working for gambling site Coolbet.com. Matt explains how to handicap curling and the crew share their picks for the 2021 Canadian Olympic Curling Trials.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/21186935/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-53849164123952999792021-06-08T12:04:00.001-06:002021-06-08T12:04:46.162-06:00CSI: Brier Draw 19 D1E9<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/19398539/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><div> <p>New York Times bestselling author Shane Ryan (Slaying The Tiger) and writer, standup comedian and 2012 U.S. champion Dean Gemmell join Kevin to examine the 9th end between Kevin Koe and Brendan Bottcher in their pool match-up at the 2021 Brier. Shane also suggests a rule change to make teams earn a blank end. You can read Shane’s article on curling in <a href= "https://www.golfdigest.com/story/forget-everything-else-in-life-watch-canadian-curling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Golf Digest</a> and catch up with Dean on <a href="https://www.deandoesthings.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">his website</a>. Link to The Curling News to follow along with video and graphics.</p> <p> </p> </div> <div> </div> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/19398539/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-89211260453646244822021-05-14T11:37:00.001-06:002021-05-14T11:37:32.279-06:00CSI: 2013 Canada Men's Olympic Trials Final D1E9<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/18999407/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Olympic silver medalists Mike Harris and Richard Hart rejoin Kevin to watch the 9th end of the 2013 Canadian Curling Trials final between John Morris and Brad Jacobs. Without hammer and trailing by one, Morris must decide where Jim Cotter should attempt to place their final stone. Link to <a href= "https://www.si.com/curling/rocklogic/csi-2013-canada-mens-olympic-trials-final-d1e9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Curling News</a> to follow along with video and graphics, and watch the entire game on <a href= "https://youtu.be/3K__XxYgHaI?t=8378" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">YouTube</a>.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/18999407/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-65524410011496562912021-04-24T15:04:00.001-06:002021-04-24T15:04:46.326-06:00Episode 75 - Erika Brown<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/18728075/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Erika Brown started young. At the age of 15 she qualified for the 1988 Olympic Games and would compete in her first World Junior Championships a month after her appearance in Calgary. Erika shares her experiences growing up in the first family of Madison curling, playing third for Lisa Schoeneberg and Patti Lank, then returning to skip and reaching the Olympics 26 years after her first appearance. She looks back on a storied career of 14 World Championship appearances and 3 Olympic games, including 4 second place finishes, and the close calls that kept her from reaching the ultimate goal, a gold medal. This episode also includes an excerpt from podcast episode <a href= "https://rocksacrossthepond.blubrry.net/2021/03/08/usa-curling-champions-galleria-houston/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"Galleria Gold"</a> from Rocks Across The Pond (84:00).</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.si.com/curling/curling-legends/curling-legends-episode-75-erika-brown">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-46432393684899933302021-04-14T13:07:00.001-06:002021-04-14T13:07:31.123-06:00CSI: 2009 World Men's Championship Final TLE<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/18694532/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><div>James Pahl and Mark Klinck rewatch Kevin Martin's first stone in the final end of the 2009 Men's World Championship. Canada is tied with hammer against Scotland's David Murdoch and poised to win back-to-back titles. What could go wrong? Link to <a href= "https://www.si.com/curling/rocklogic/csi-2009-world-mens-championship-final-tle" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Curling News</a> to follow along with video and graphics.</div> <div> </div> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/18694532/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-13079513017412507552021-03-20T12:03:00.001-06:002021-03-20T12:03:57.524-06:00CSI: 2021 Scotties Tiebreaker U2LE<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/18400988/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>New York Time's bestselling author of <em>Slaying The Tiger</em> Shane Ryan joins writer, stand-up and 2012 U.S. National Champion Dean Gemmell to examine the final end from the 2021 Scotties Tiebreaker between Manitoba's Jennifer Jones and Laura Walker of Alberta. You can read Shane's article on curling at <a href= "https://www.golfdigest.com/story/forget-everything-else-in-life-watch-canadian-curling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Golf Digest</a> and catch-up with Dean on his <a href="https://www.deandoesthings.com/" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">website</a>.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/18400988/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-60111202165107778282021-03-12T15:42:00.001-07:002021-03-12T15:42:43.118-07:00Special Episode - Jim Wilson<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/18302381/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><div>There are many legendary nicknames in curling. The Wrench, Snake, Moose, Arrow, Ice Man and the Round-Mound-Of-Come-Around are only a few. But you may not have heard the legend of "Rock Bottom". Coach for Team Epping at the 2021 Tim Horton's Brier is Jim Wilson, aka R.B. Jim shares the origin of his nickname, some insight into Team Epping in the Brier bubble and considers a What If? for Wayne Middaugh's 1998 World Championship squad.</div> <div> </div> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.si.com/curling/curling-legends/curling-legends-nicknames-jim-wilson">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-9912434443608871502021-03-11T11:06:00.001-07:002021-03-11T11:06:13.655-07:00The Tick Shot<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/18283925/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Ken Pomeroy of Kenpom.com, Gerry Geurts of CurlingZone and skip of Team Manitoba Jason Gunnlaugson join Kevin to discuss the evolution of the Tick Shot. They examine the impact it has on strategy and how it may bring future changes to the sport.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/18283925/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-42501144029563332102021-02-27T12:05:00.001-07:002021-02-27T12:05:03.669-07:00Episode 74 - Rae Kells/Donna Boyle<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/18040829/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Rae Kells was prepared for the challenge. Her experience as a probations officer provided ideal training for work as a curling official. Her steady approach to controversial finishes at the 1993 Canadian Junior Women’s and ’94 Junior Men’s championships led to nearly 3 decades officiating regional, national, and international events, including four Olympic Winter Games. Rae was inducted into the <a href= "https://www.curling.ca/hof/people/rae-kells/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">Canadian Curling Hall of Fame</a> in 2019. Before talking to Rae (30:24), Kevin speaks to Donna Boyle about her involvement with production of the recently released documentary <a href="https://youtu.be/FRiMLH3n3mA" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">Sticks and Stones: The Battle for the Soul of Curling</a>.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.si.com/curling/curling-legends/curling-legends-episode-74-rae-kells-sticks-and-stones">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-29155154894140282022021-02-22T10:05:00.001-07:002021-02-22T10:05:39.878-07:00CSI: 2016 Brier Final U1E7<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17948705/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Doug Wilson and Mickey Pendergast return to discuss <a href= "https://www.facebook.com/groups/dailycurlingpuzzle/permalink/272164754162229" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Curling Puzzle #51</a>. Alberta's Kevin Koe has hammer and is ahead by 1 over Brad Gushue of Newfoundland in the 7th end of the 2016 Brier Final. Alberta third Mark Kennedy is about to throw his first and every rock is still in play, what the Scots might call a "guddle". Link to <a href= "https://www.si.com/curling/rocklogic/csi-2016-brier-final-u1e7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Curling News</a> to follow along with video and graphics, and watch the entire game on <a href="https://youtu.be/fm2S_GCpn1o?t=6227" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">YouTube</a>.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/17948705/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-83323262678634027052021-02-16T14:06:00.001-07:002021-02-16T14:06:27.740-07:00CSI: 1997 Canada Men's Olympic Trials Final TE9<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17893676/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Olympic silver medalists Mike Harris and Richard Hart join Kevin to revisit the ninth end of their 1997 Canadian Olympic Trials final against Kevin Martin. Tied with hammer, Harris is in position to score but Martin third Don Walchuk makes a big runback with his first and when the dust settles, nothing is certain. Hart and Harris conclude with some remarkable insight on losing motivation, the myth of Olympic pressure, and more. Link to <a href= "https://www.si.com/curling/rocklogic/csi-1997-canada-mens-olympic-trials-final-te9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Curling News</a> to follow along with video and graphics, and watch the entire game on <a href= "https://youtu.be/1TVubODWSBU?t=10085" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">the YouTube page</a> Curling Legends Podcast Presents.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/17893676/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-77551760290838490802021-02-06T14:05:00.001-07:002021-02-06T14:05:47.903-07:00How Many Ends?<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17789279/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Ken Pomeroy of Kenpom.com and Gerry Geurts of CurlingZone return with host Kevin Palmer. They are joined by skip of Team Manitoba Jason Gunnlaugson to debate whether games should be 8 or 10 ends. Ken's article on the topic can be found on his curling blog <a href="https://doubletakeout.com/blog/15-the-case-for-8-ends/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">doubletakeout.com</a>. Kevin provided past analysis in his <a href= "https://www.si.com/curling/archive/eight-ends-versus-10-heres-the-math" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2019 article in The Curling News</a>.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/17789279/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-72194945027514773412021-01-29T14:05:00.001-07:002021-01-29T14:05:26.050-07:00CSI: The Power Play<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17669411/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Jonathan Havercroft and Ryan McGhee of Rocks Across The Pond Podcast join Kevin to discuss how a Power Play is used in the Mixed Doubles Final of the 2018 World Cup event in Omaha, Nebraska. Link to <a href= "https://www.si.com/curling/rocklogic/csi-the-power-play" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">The Curling News</a> to follow along with video and graphics, and watch the entire game on <a href= "https://youtu.be/clDZDaXdpvU" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">YouTube</a>.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/17669411/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-77536871953893773422021-01-25T14:05:00.001-07:002021-01-25T14:05:03.209-07:00Episode 73 - Don Aitken<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17635355/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Don Aitken misses corn brooms. With two players pounding in unison, the sound and rhythm was a thing of beauty. In the 1970s, Don practiced on linoleum during summer months and by winter, helped sweep up purple hearts, winning Quebec Provincial titles throughout the decade-first with skip Bill Kent and later <a href= "https://curling.libsyn.com/episode-28-jim-ursel" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jim Ursel</a>. His Brier championship victory came with Ursel, <a href= "https://curling.libsyn.com/episode-3-art-lobel" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Art Lobel</a> and Brian Ross, taking the title in their home city of Montreal in 1977. The Hall of Famer shares stories from early junior success and discovering drag effect in the 1960s, up to his final Brier appearances as a skip in the early 80s.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.si.com/curling/curling-legends/curling-legends-podcast-episode-73-don-aitken">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-14694319466866444542021-01-22T08:05:00.001-07:002021-01-22T08:05:09.474-07:00CSI: 1995 Brier Semi-final D1E2<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17608694/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>James Pahl and Mark Klinck join Kevin and go back nearly 26 years to the second end of the Brier semi-final between Alberta's Kevin Martin and Kerry Burtnyk of Manitoba. James was second for Team Alberta and shares his memories of the situation. Link to <a href= "https://www.si.com/curling/rocklogic/csi-1995-brier-semifinal-d1e2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Curling News</a> to follow along with video and graphics, and watch the entire game at <a href= "https://youtu.be/mb-YvwoguVQ?t=2001" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">Curling Legends Podcast Presents YouTube Channel</a>.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/17608694/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-89948081848664046862021-01-15T14:03:00.001-07:002021-01-15T14:03:03.124-07:00CSI: 2017 World Men's Final U2LE<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17480705/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Mickey Pendergast and Doug Wilson join Kevin for a Curling Scene Investigation from the 10th end of the 2017 world men's final between Canada's Brad Gushue and Niklas Edin of Sweden. U2LE means "Up Two, Last End". Link to <a href= "https://www.si.com/curling/rocklogic/csi-2017-world-mens-final-u2le" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Curling News</a> to follow along with video and graphics.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/17480705/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-42292423559315172612021-01-06T12:03:00.001-07:002021-01-06T12:03:28.498-07:00Examining Curling From A Different Angle<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17381105/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/no/direction/forward/tdest_id/2545757/render-playlist/no/custom-color/87A93A/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>The inaugural episode of a new podcast on curling analytics, produced by the host of Curling Legends. Kevin Palmer is joined by Ken Pomeroy of <a href="https://kenpom.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">Kenpom.com</a> and Gerry Geurts of <a href= "https://www.curlingzone.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">CurlingZ</a><a href="https://www.curlingzone.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one</a> to discuss how curling teams are ranked. Ken comes from the world of basketball analytics and his team rankings can be found on his new curling blog, <a href="https://doubletakeout.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">Doubletakeout.com</a>. Official World Rankings can be found at the <a href="https://worldcurling.org/teamrankings/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Curling Federation</a> and also available with further insight at <a href= "https://www.curlingzone.com/rankings.php#1" target="_blank" rel= "noopener">CurlingZone/Rankings</a></p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/17381105/tdest_id/2545757">Check out this episode!</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-78911141761465933102020-12-29T14:05:00.001-07:002020-12-29T14:05:20.409-07:00Episode 72 - Terry Jones<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/17317241/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Terry Jones wanted to have fun. As a kid he ran errands for the press box during the local baseball tournament and saw the thrill of being a sportswriter. Over his career "Jonesy" has covered it all, including succeeding Don "Buckets" Flemming as the curling scribe for the Edmonton Journal. Terry shares a secret to Don's success, reveals his own origin story, then weaves a history of curling in Northern Alberta, by way of his book <a href= "https://curlingalberta.ca/world-capital-of-curling-book/?p=3539" target="_blank" rel="noopener">World Curling Capital.</a> A limited release, some copies are still available and can be purchased by contacting <a href="https://curlingalberta.ca/contact-us" target= "_blank" rel="noopener">Curling Alberta</a>. Terry was inducted into the Canadian Curling Hall of Fame in 2019. This episode also includes Kevin's commentary on recent discourse about changing the Brier and Scotties (69:24) and an excerpt from podcast episode "<a href= "https://rocksacrossthepond.blubrry.net/2020/12/17/1997-brier-final-kevin-palmer/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Run it Back: 1997 Brier Final</a>" from Rocks Across The Pond (85:50)</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.si.com/curling/curling-legends/curling-legends-podcast-episode-72-terry-jones">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-40414792099829720552020-12-03T10:02:00.001-07:002020-12-03T10:02:47.296-07:00Episode 71 - Elaine Dagg-Jackson<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/16992839/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Elaine Dagg-Jackson pursued her passion to coach curling. The decision led her to amazing experiences across the globe and eventually her dream job as National Women's Coach with Curling Canada. Her introduction to the sport came from father Lyall, winner of the 1964 Brier and World Championship. Her first trip to the Scotties was in 1987 as the alternate for Pat Sanders, but it was her work with Julie Sutton in the early 90s that would raise her coaching development to new levels. Elaine shares how her path in curling was not always clear and reflects on the moments that ultimately led to her becoming one of the first professional coaches in the game.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.si.com/curling/curling-legends/curling-legends-podcast-episode-71-elaine-dagg-jackson">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-44358847124284322742020-11-20T07:02:00.001-07:002020-11-20T07:02:56.424-07:00Episode 70 - Bert Gretzinger<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/16822997/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><p>Bert Gretzinger has a few stories to tell. Born in Winnipeg, he spent his middle-school years in Calgary and eventually landed in Vancouver, winning his first purple heart as vice for Bernie Sparkes in 1976. After moving to Kelowna, Bert next won the BC Provincials in 1989 with Rick Folk. They lost to the Ryan Express in the Brier final and when Pat moved to Kelowna, Bert was willing to drop to second to form a new team. With Gerry Richard at lead, their team of skips would compete in three straight Briers, including back-to-back finals against Russ Howard in 1993 and '94. Bert would finally skip a team to a Brier in 1999 and fall one game short of a chance at the Olympics in 2001. Bert tells stories of car spiels, calcuttas and his version of the rock handle controversy at the 1994 Brier. He also shares a lesson in gamesmanship from Bernie Sparkes.</p> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="http://curling.libsyn.com/episode-70-bert-gretzinger?tdest_id=436263">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-48570604726989985442020-11-06T15:06:00.001-07:002020-11-06T15:06:38.135-07:00Episode 69 - Resby Coutts<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/16714250/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/tdest_id/436263/render-playlist/no/custom-color/7a142c/" height="90" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe><br /><div data-pm-slice="1 1 []" data-en-clipboard="true">Resby Coutts is a real life Les Nessman. Farm reporting was the primary job but having been a member of the Murray Nye team that lost the final of the 1981 Manitoba Tankard, curling was added to his radio duties. Resby shares how starting early at a one sheet club sparked a lifetime in the roaring game. We cover his playing years, the Brandon "Olympic" Trials, the story behind the first Brier and many other tales of Manitoba curling history. Resby is helping to fund the Manitoba Curling Hall of Fame. Go to <a href= "https://www.canadahelps.org/en/charities/manitoba-curling-hall-of-fame-museum-inc/p2p/most-notable-teams"> https://www.canadahelps.org/en/charities/manitoba-curling-hall-of-fame-museum-inc/p2p/most-notable-teams</a>/ before December 5th to contribute and vote on Manitoba's Most Notable Team. You can also visit his website at <a href= "http://www.thecurler.com">http://www.thecurler.com</a>/.</div> <br /><p><a target="_blank" href="http://curling.libsyn.com/episode-69-resby-coutts?tdest_id=436263">Check out the latest episode of Curling Legends Podcast</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4441578581214913395.post-46416372510329501632020-08-15T14:15:00.013-06:002020-12-23T21:59:07.788-07:00A Short Diatribe on Even Ends<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Before diving in, I want to mention Ken Pomeroy's new curling website <a href="https://doubletakeout.com/" target="_blank">DoubleTakeout.com</a>. Ken is an esteemed analyst of <a href="https://kenpom.com/" target="_blank">US college basketball</a> and in recent years caught the curling bug. You can hear how he came to the sport in his interview on a recent episode of the <a href="https://rocksacrossthepond.blubrry.net/2020/08/03/ken-pomeroy-curling-analytics/" target="_blank">Rocks Across the Pond podcast</a>. Thank you to Ken for recharging my CurlWithMath batteries and despite podcasting and other projects on the go, I will be trying to post more here than I have in recent years, including an updated Win Probability chart and revisit to a classic article "<a href="http://curlwithmath.blogspot.com/2008/10/is-curling-battle-for-hammer.html" target="_blank">Is Curling a Battle for the Hammer?</a>". </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As I wrote in a past Curling News (also <a href="http://curlwithmath.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-past-present-and-future-of.html" target="_blank">released on this blog</a>) we need more collaboration in analytics to move the sport further ahead and I'm thrilled to see Ken bring his court-side math chops to the ice with painted rings. Now on with the article....</span></p><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">If you've watched curling on television in the last few years it's very likely you've heard a commentator mention the term "even ends". Perhaps you wondered what it meant. Or maybe you felt like an insider because you recognized the great decision a team made to carry over their hammer into an even end to improve their chance at victory. If you are in the latter category, then I'd like you to consider that the team may in many cases be making an irrelevant choice which neither increases or decreases their chance at victory, or possibly a mistake.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am not going to quarrel with blanking an end when you are tied or ahead with hammer at any point in the game. Generally, this either improves your position or has limited or no impact on the outcome. I won't discuss the irrelevance of blanking the first end to get the hammer in the second (an "even") end. <a href="https://doubletakeout.com/blog/5-the-transactional-blank-i/" target="_blank">Choosing to blank the first end</a> may or may not be a great decision, depending on many factors, such as opponent, ice conditions, style of play or the number of cocktails you had the night before. But please don't say you blanked the first end because "2" is an even number and you are expecting to trade hammers for the next 7 or 9 ends. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I want to look specifically at a team one down with hammer, charting their strategic course when 4 ends remain in the contest. Specifically, the 7th end of a 10 end game, or 5th end of an 8 end game. When behind by a single point in this situation, some teams are maneuvering the play to increase their chance for a blank, in order to enter the final three ends and get "two hammers to one". It sounds exciting doesn't it? A blank in this fateful end appears to mean you get twice as many hammers than your opponent. What this concept misses, however, is you have hammer right now and many things can still happen to thwart your comeback. Steals happen. Three enders happen. And sometimes, no one scores and the hammer doesn't come back to you when you thought it would. You can also become predictable and if your opponent knows what you are planning to do, they may gain a strategic advantage.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I've written before on this topic and even submitted a paper to the <a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/" target="_blank">MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference</a> in 2014 that included some analysis. Without re-hashing it, I'll summarize by saying it's simply not that substantial a difference. The study indicated a weaker team improves their chances by blanking against a stronger opponent, the stronger team is better to stay aggressive and if two teams are equal, it really doesn't matter. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Team Mike McEwen made a decision in the Wild Card game ahead of the 2020 Brier that came straight out of the Even Ends playbook. Trailing Glenn Howard 3-2 with hammer in the late stage of the 7th end, Mike made no hesitation in peeling a corner guard with his first stone, rather than choosing to come around and attempt to score a deuce.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZaXejEHwLD0/Xzg-SJRyyHI/AAAAAAAAZO4/s2_IvO1dfaknHNL0k6Mel2gU8Os14BYpACNcBGAsYHQ/s887/2020_BRI_WC_7E_14R.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="887" height="288" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZaXejEHwLD0/Xzg-SJRyyHI/AAAAAAAAZO4/s2_IvO1dfaknHNL0k6Mel2gU8Os14BYpACNcBGAsYHQ/w410-h288/2020_BRI_WC_7E_14R.jpg" width="410" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">McEwen is Red</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I can appreciate some aspects of the situation might be a concern. The guard is tight to the rings and is a Howard stone. If Mike makes a perfect come around, the greatest risk is Glenn playing a straight back raise and nutting it, forcing McEwen to either draw for one or attempt a difficult raise take-out in order to blank the end. My suspicion, however, is Mike may have chosen to peel the guard regardless of the colour or location of the stone. I recall a similar scenario later in this Brier where a team chose to peel their own guard in the 7th end (or, in a hazy state of quarantine I might have dreamed this since I cannot locate it on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3cR_DttIClGcE5StsIbyXA" target="_blank">Curling Canada's YouTube channel</a>). Let's consider Mike's options...</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Peeling the guard will result in a blank nearly every time, so we'll assume 100%. WP = 42%. We'll also assume a draw attempt by McEwen will hit the paint somewhere.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">If Mike is able to score two points, his WP increase to 63%. But failure to score two and being forced to a single will result in WP = 37%. Math would suggest it's preferable to score two right now and all the advantage sits with Mike. He has two rocks to Glenn's one and barring a horrible mistake, no fear of a steal. So what might happen if Mike chooses to draw instead?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">If McEwen makes a perfect come-around, as stated earlier, Glenn is most likely to attempt a run-back. The only risk in this case would be a perfect nut-nut with Glenn raising his guard perfectly and sitting completely buried. If he's able to accomplish this, Mike would be faced with a draw for one or run-back for a blank, introducing more risk than he has right now. Any other instance in which Glenn makes the run-back (ie. most of the time) and is not buried, it's a blank end.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">If Mike makes a poor shot and comes behind the tee line, Glenn may choose to draw down and freeze to the McEwen stone and again, Mike may be forced to a single. However, sometimes McEwen comes deep and Glenn makes a poor shot, leaving them a chance for two points.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">What if Mike makes a perfect draw every time? Let's consider Glenn makes a the nut-nut run-back 10% and misses 20%. Mike increases his WP to 46%. In fact, if Mike NEVER gets 2 points, and Glenn makes the nut-nut an astounding 20% of the time, his WP still only drops to 41%!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now, let's estimate Mike comes deep on the draw 30% of the time and Glenn draws down on top and is able to force 90% of the time this happens. Adding to the scenario above, his WP = 47%. Note this is a very conservative approach as Mike should be considered comparable or even more accurate than Glenn at this stage of their careers and those estimated percentages are likely more in his favour. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Some readers might consider a third option for Team McEwen. Mike could draw mostly buried, leaving Glenn a small piece of granite. This increases the likely-hood Glenn will try to hit the stone and roll to the open, forcing a blank, introducing some risk of a missed shot and deuce for McEwen. Also makes the perfect runback much more difficult. Not certain the slim chance of Glenn wrecking on the guard is worth the attempt, but others may disagree.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Looking at these numbers, I can understand McEwen's rush to peel the guard as it eliminates any variability in a game that means everything (win you're in the Brier, lose you go home). It's fair to say the decision in a vacuum is not so clear and I would hope, if the guard was a Red instead of Yellow, Mike would not so quickly toss aside a possible skip's deuce, simply because it was the 7th end. One can only wonder what they would have done in the same situation one end later?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">You can watch the situation unfold here... <a href="https://youtu.be/se8IveYx9UY?t=5727" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/se8IveYx9UY?t=5727</a></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/se8IveYx9UY" width="320" youtube-src-id="se8IveYx9UY"></iframe></div><div><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0