A New, Yet Still the Same, TSN Skins

This past weekend we were all subjected  fortunate to see a new flavour of Skins Curling on TSN.  Rather than having four of the top mens teams in Canada, or spice the event up with a European team or a Woman's team, 2013 presented us with a real life sports fantasy draft.  This also made for one of the more awkward 30 minutes in the history of sports television, but I must admit it was strangely fascinating watching the Vic Rauter hosted broadcast of "the draft".  

In case you missed it, fans were able to vote for their favorite players.  The top four from each position were recruited to play in the 2013 Dominion All-Star Skins presented by Pinty's and hosted at Casino Rama.  Kevin Martin, Kevin Koe, Glenn Howard and Jeff Stoughton were the top skips.  Not much surprise given in the last 6 years they have won every Brier, a bundle of Grand Slams, World Championships and even an Olympic Gold.

On Thursday before the event, a draft was held where each of the skips chose their teammates, a key rule being you could not chose your own teammate unless they were the only one remaining.

For anyone who's never done a fantasy pool, a "snake" draft allows for the sap who has to pick last in the first round, the ability to pick first in the next round.  In this event, Kevin Martin chose first, eight and nine while Stoughton chose fourth, fifth and twelve (the dreaded final pick). Pat Simmons was that final pick and, without much explanation, trotted out one of those really large cheques with a donation for the Schmirler Foundation.  

Of the four teams the top voted skips represented, only Wayne Middaugh and Mark Nichols were not particpating.      Steve Gould (previously with Stoughton) and BJ Neufeld of Team Mike McEwen were worthy replacements, though not having Wayne (who apparently had other commitments) at a Skins event did feel odd.

I won't go into the details of the actual draft results, but suprisingly there is already a Wikipedia page for that information.  Everyone appeared a little uncomfortable, and watching grown men hand shake and "man-hug" doesn't really make for top entertainment during this golden age of television (at least not on cable).  There were some interesting decisions made, related to which position was chosen when (2 leads went in the first round).  I could even analyze the approach and talk about how use of game theory could enable you to chose the best possible team (at least on paper), but that would be only interesting to maybe two other people and likely well beyond what the skips were thinking I expect.  

And then, on Saturday and Sunday, we were able to watch these new All-Star teams play each other.  Except, they aren't really all-star teams, in the sense of Major League Baseball or the NBA.  10 of the 12 players already play together and one (Steve) did as recent as last year.   It was more like having your four favourite albums on your iPod then putting them in a single playlist and hitting shuffle.  

As always with Skins, lots of rocks in play, lots of circus shots and a couple of draws to the button for more money than you get for winning most bonspiels.  It was still skins, it was still only (mildly) interesting to me and the fact players were on different teams didn't really add to any entertainment value.  

Not much math to discuss.  Years ago, in the early days of this event, players like Kevin Martin and Wayne Middaugh had already figured out the strategy of sacrificing skins to play for hammer at the right time in order to maximize the chance to win and move on.  In the past, when the winner returned each year, it was even more critical to win the entire event.  This is more an event of "angles", including the one   we saw in Kevin Koe's quadruple (or was it a quintupple) takeout to move ahead of Stoughton in the semi-final.

I was really glad to see Steve Gould make some cash with (All-Star) Team Howard.   Even if he was a little out of shape sweeping a few of those draw shots (he actually held the broom for the draw against Kevin Martin).  Well done Steve and good luck with Team Jacobs in the upcoming playdowns.

In other news, congratulations to Skip James Pahl and Third Mark Klinck for winning their spot in the Alberta Provincials.  These guys continue to call themselves retired, then show up for playdowns and beat most of the field.  A lesson to all of us that try to leave the game, don't ever enter because you actually might win.  Mark, who will be missing his planned Mexican vacation to instead curl in Leduc, once said to me "the problem with curling in playdowns is, if you win, it inevitably leads to more curling".  So true.

Considering the Continental Cup and How to Lose When You Score 4 in the First End

It's been a while since I've taken finger to keyboard.  I had hoped to get out a Grand Slam recap but the holidays, family, work, and then an awkward fall while skating with my 7 year old daughter resulted in my first ever broken bone.  The cast comes off in 3 more weeks and though it pains me to type for very long, I recognize my fans need more Curling Math to help while away the January freeze.  If I seem unclear or start to ramble, it's because the scotch I am drinking to manage the pain  has dulled my writing senses and made me unitelligible (or at least more than usual).

Before we start, if you haven't checked out our new Around The House Podcast or were waiting for it to be on iTunes or downloadable to your smart phone/device (I personally use Downcast on my iPhone), then please check us out by subscribing to our RSS feed.

Where to begin?  Let's start with version 2.0 (or is it 3.5?) of The Continental Cup.  I've written about this non-event before, and recent comments from Canada's golf/curling scribe Bob Weeks generally fit with my assessment. 

I want to be clear on one thing.  Having an event like this is VERY GOOD FOR CURLING.  I would like nothing more than it to become a showcase which receives coverage across the globe and reaches fans who might otherwise not see the Brier or Grand Slam finals.  Mr. Weeks suggests this is no Ryder Cup but he should also advise readers of the fact Ryder Cup didn't matter for nearly 60 years, despite golf growing in interest exponentially.  The Presidents Cup (perhaps a more fair comparison with the Continental Cup) , despite some close matches and even polite controversy in 2003, has never come close to the excitement that is the Ryder Cup.  

I was VERY much in favour of the rule change to a 60 point format instead of the race to 256 or whatever it used to be.  Keep it simple so that that the average fan can follow, so we know where everything stands and can make our own assessment of each teams chances at each stage.  This was done while still keeping half the points until the final day, so that drama storylines can unfold and the team from behind still has at least a small chance.  Someone has to tell me why TSN kept putting up the graphic "RACE to 31"  when in fact 30 1/2 is the actual point total required to win, and the Euros World needed only 30 and a tie to retain the Cup.  I know this appears minor, but as the Curling with Math guy, it is rather irritating that someone couldn't complete a basic equation for the viewer.  Is "RACE to 30.5" really that much worse?  And why is the Skills competition called "Singles" when it really isn't?

Having said all this, I still am not a fan of watching this event.  Even if there was more animosity between the teams rather than the cheerful mixed spiel camaraderie Bob Weeks talks about, I still likely wouldn't care all that much.  I never watched Kevin Martin and Randy Ferbey soley for the hope that a fist fight would break out.  I would suggest (as Bob does) that holding the event every other year (or even every three) may increase my interest.  Maybe having it in exotic venues (like Las Vegas in 2014) will help as well, but likely not from my couch.  One poster on CurlingZone had a good point.  If you don't like it, it doesn't mean it doesn't have to exist, simply don't watch.  But you know what, I probably will, and I'll continue to wonder why.

Now, back to the last Grand Slam, The Canadian Open.  I'll pass on the full recap (too many TV games to cover), but instead analyze two situations that occured.  One, John Epping took 4 in the first end of an 8 end game, and LOST.  Second (in Part II), the finals had Brad Jacobs of Northern Ontario invoking a conservative strategy against Howard.  Recall Stoughton in the Canada Cup played a (somehwat) similar gameplan.  Is this the way to play Howard?

How to lose when you score 4 in the first end:

 

7.3%.  That was the odds that Team Kevin Koe would recover from the 4 ender they coughed up to Team Epping in the first end of their round robin game.  That might actually sound high and, given the event and ice conditions, it probably is.  So did Koe come back or did Epping just collapse?

Second end, Koe's squad makes some great freeze shots and bounces back with a deuce.  They've now increased their odds to 11.7%.  

Third end, John misses his first shot, a chance at a double to sit two.  Likely Kevin would have a chance to double those out, so a blank (the end result) was still very likely.  Koe drops to 10.4%

  

Up 4-2 with hammer in the 4th end, Epping is facing this on third Scott Bailey's last rock:

Epping is Red

Epping decides to attempt to tap the high yellow and push his second shot rock to the back four.  Both Mike and Richard agree they don't like the call.  Before the shot, Koe would need two shots to get shot-rock and with this call by John, Koe will now only need one shot.  Scott ends up pushing the back red out of the rings, Kevin makes a soft hit tap on his own, and the result is this:

Epping is Red

As bad as it all looks, John still has a raise hit to take one on his last shot.  It's a terrible throw (attempting soft weight), comes across the face and he's very fortunate to only give up a steal of one.  Koe is now at 21.5%.  

In the 5th end, rather than attempting a run back on his first shot, Epping tries to come around with a soft tap on Koe's shot stone sitting top button.  He's light and doesn't move the rock enough.  He's perfect on his final shot and manages to draw the pin for a single point.  Koe now down 5-3 with hammer, 3 ends remain, 19.3%.

6th end, Rogers joins late from commercial break, but we see an Epping come around on their own center line guard.  Two points up and three ends to play, that guard should not be there.  I can only assume that was a mistake. Or, perhaps John was trying to entice Kevin to play around a longer guard, rather than toss up a corner (which he did). Koe second Carter Rycroft actually ticks the front guard on both his shots and by thirds rocks they have all but one stone in play. Scott Bailey is heavy on his guard attempt, Pat Simmons makes two great shots, a run back and then a raise tap.  Epping is in a heap of trouble with his first rock.  He attempts a runback double on the centre guard, opens up the rings, and leaves Koe sitting first and third.  John makes a double on his last, but rolls out and leaves Koe with a split to take three.  Koe goes from 19.3% to 63.4%.  Even a deuce by Koe would have only put him at 36.9%.  That third point was critical. 

In the 7th end, Koe makes a spectacular raise double on his first shot.  Epping then makes a very difficult double for a blank on his last shot, rather than taking one and being tied without hammer in the last end.  An interesting call that he needs to make roughly 1/3 of the time to be correct.

In the 8th end, John calls for a hit on Scott's final shot.

Epping is Red

I believe the tap would have been better, but the result appears to be a great shot....until Koe peels out the two reds in the button, and sits one buried.  John draws for one and they head to an extra end.

Some tension in the extra end, but Kevin makes a great corner freeze on his first shot and eventually comes through with the win.

Other side notes:

Tied without hammer in the 7th end (9th in a 10 end game) I much prefer to put up two guards rather than one.  John Morris did this in his game against Fowler but in other games (Jacobs in the finals as an example), I've seen skips choose to come into the rings on leads second rock. Putting up two guards greatly decreases the chance of a blank.  In this position, you need one team to score a single, either you steal or hold your opponent to one.  Every other likely outcome and you are 80% or greater to lose the game (unless of course you steal more than one).

Richard Hart has joined Mike Harris and Rob Faulds in the broadcast booth for Rogers SportsNet.  It's still early, but I suspect Harris  and Hart may eventually rival Neale and Cole as the greatest broadcast duo in Canadian television.  Did you know Bob Cole was a curler?  He has two Purple Hearts from the 1971 and '75 Briers, skipping Newfoundland.  He also played in the 1965 and '73 Canadian Mixed.  A wonder why he never tried to commentate for curling, it could have been entertaining.  Perhaps he was in booth at some point, our over 60 readers may be able to comment on this obscure piece of Canadaian Curling history.

Part II from the Canadian Open: How to Play Howard (coming soon)...

Couch Coverage of the Canada Cup

I was traveling last week and was finally able to rip through all the Canada Cup games on my Tivo.  I was glad to see Stoughton win a well deserved Olympic Trials spot.  No surprise the first three teams qualified for the hardest curling event in the world include the most consistent winning skips (who also throw last rock) of the past 16 years.  Since 1996, these guys have won 8 Briers and lost the final another 6 times.  And if you add in 2 of the thirds as skips, you can add another win and finals loss (Wayne Middaugh won in 98 and John Morris lost in 2002).  Richard Hart played on most of those Howard teams before retiring in 2011, and he joined us on our second episode of the Around The House podcast. (I promise not to plug the podcast again, if YOU promise to go listen as soon as you're done reading this).

Congratulations also to Team Stefanie Lawton for their win and Trials spot.  They played a fantastic final game, with Stefanie making two key doubles in the second and fourth end to hold their opponent, Team Jennifer Jones featuring Kaitlyn Lawes as skip, to a pair of singles.  She was also supported by conservative calls during the 9th end when, down one without hammer, Lawes, decided to play for a blank by continuing to hit and roll rather than draw around the centre guard.  Stefanie had a strange call herself in the 6th end when, up two without hammer, she sits one on the button wide open.  There is a corner guard covering second shot in the full twelve foot, belonging to Lawes.

Lawton is Red

Stefanie thinks at first of trying to pick out the Lawes stone, but then decides to play a straight peel on the guard.  It would be highly preferred that she play either a guard on her shot stone or draw to sit second.  By peeling, she is essentially conceding a deuce.  However, perhaps Lawton is simply trying to set up a cross house double, which she almost makes on her last.  Luckily for Team lawton, Kaitlyn hits and rolls out on her open hit attempt for two and has to settle for one, leaving her down one without hammer.

Some other tidbits from the event:

Mike Harris never had it so good

Team Mike McEwen was shown on TSN 6 times per my counting, and if they had won their semi-final match-up, it would have been 7 televised draws for a team that has yet to make it to a Brier.  Team McEwen has been in the televised spotlight with their many Grand Slam appearances as well.  Contrast their fame with the anonymity of Mike Harris, with then third Richard Hart (who joined us on our recent podcast,...oh, ok, I said I'd stop). They had no such national exposure back in the early 90s when they couldn't break out of Ontario.  Similar to McEwen who has lost the Manitoba final 3 years in a row, Mike and Rich lost 2 provincial finals in Ontario (1992 and '93), but were virtually unknown outside of the curling community in Eastern Canada and amongst the top traveling teams of the day.  The 1998 Olympics changed all that and gave Mike the opportunity to work in the booth for CBC and now Sportsnet.  A location he will be joined in by Richard Hart during next weeks' Grand Slam.  I'm not expecting this type of male bonding magic, but hopefully it comes close.

Epping's call in the 9th

Against Mike McEwen, game is tied in the 9th end and John Epping does not have the hammer.  On third Scott Bailey's first shot, he decides to draw into the pile of rocks in the four foot:

Epping is Red

Much better to throw a centre guard here and force Mike to throw a peel.  At this stage he cannot risk a deuce or a blank.  I suspect Mike was glad to see this call.  Eventually John will have to play into the rings, and I expect he was concerned Mike would come in earlier instead of peeling, but I feel he should have waited until his first or last shot before making this call.

Those Team McEwen mustaches rival those of the Village People (can you tell which is a curling team and which is a world famous pop act who made white people dance with their hands above their shoulders?):

McEwen versus Martin:

An incredible first end, with rocks everywhere and Mike facing the potential for disaster.  Everyone knows how Martin is nearly unbeatable when they score two in the first end.  Mike smartly decides not to play runbacks and instead calls draw shots around the centre.  Kevin plays along and eventually Mike makes a fantastic big weight shot on his last, leaving Martin sitting one.  Kevin has a chance to make the granite fly but he racks on the guard, so we will not find out if more than two was possible.

Martin makes a great roll in the second, avoiding a possible two or three by McEwen.  Instead, Kevin steals one and McEwen has to test the position of "down two with hammer to Martin and 8 ends remain".  

McEwen quickly takes two and steals two, and eventually wins without much drama.   

The Finals

Stoughton vs Howard for a Trials spot.  Jeff's team needs to win to get a spot.  Unnlike in years past, losing to a team which has already qualified (like Howard) does not give them the automatic berth.  Adds a little intensity to the contest and you can tell by Jeff's cautious play early in the game.  He chooses to hit with their first rock, rather than throw up a corner guard (a more common play).  Unfortnately, lead Mark Nichols flashes on his second shot and Stoughton is forced to an eventual single point. Mark will make up for this early mistake by playing fantastic (88%) the rest of the way.  To add a little math, by missing that shot, Mark needed to be 66/72 (based on 4 point scoring system) on his remaining 18 shots in order to hit 88%.

Stoughton steals in the second but is in trouble in the third end. Jeff manages a couple of freezes on skips rocks and is able to force Howard to one, crisis avoided.  He now leads 2-1 with hammer.

Stoughton is Red

In the 8th end, Stoughton has hammer tied 3-3.  Glenn places his first rock in the rings and Jeff chooses to hit it, rather than put up a corner guard (similar to the first end).  After Howard nose hits, Jeff calls for the corner. Russ mentions that this looks strange but, if Jeff prefers to play cautious, it's a clever strategy.  Jeff doesn't allow Glenn to put up a "free-guard zone" center guard and force the play to the middle.    This increases the possibility of a blank and gives Jeff the ability to play a more conservative end.  We can only speculate if this would have been the same call in a game where an Olympic Trails spot was not on the line.  Of note, Howard's third Wayne Middaugh actually noses a peel on his first attempt, something he may not have done more than 3-4 times since 1996 (this is what's called a "speculative" stat, in that I really have no idea, he's just know for throwing these well).

In the 9th end, still tied 3-3, Jeff throws their first stone out to the wings, rather than drawing around the center guard.  This eventually puts Howard to a decision on his second Brent Lainge's final shot of the end (even has a 90 second time out!).

Stoughton is Red

Team Howard (and Brother Russ in the booth, drawing nearly as good on his telestrator as I have) discusses  the option of a hit and roll (red line above), a guard (yellow) or the wide outturn draw (blue).  You can make a case for all of these but I think the long guard may have proven better in the long run. As it turns out, Glenn calls the hit and roll and ends up in a position for a possible force but Wayne hits and rolls out when attempting to count two. This presents an interesting example of how playing out to the side has forced Jeff's opponent to consider play away from the center and keep the end more open for several options later.  I like the way Stoughton has (both here and throughout the game) placed rocks to force his game plan rather than be forced into Glenn's.  Hitting on leads first rock rather than placing a guard, for example, as discussed earlier.

Skips rocks and Glenn is looking at an open hit of the Stoughton rock in the side of the house or a draw around a corner guard. 

Stoughton is Red

                        

Wayne mentions the guard is too long to draw behind (the correct call if the gaurd was better positioned) so he chooses to hit the Stoughton stone in the 12 foot, rolling towards the centre.  Jeff then rolls towards the guard, giving Glenn a chance on his final shot to force Jeff to one rather than blank.  Glenn looks at a freeze versus a hit and roll behind the long guard covering a sliver of the four foot.  He makes it perfect but Jeff still has enough room to make the shot of the game, a double and roll out for the blank by coming across the face, barely sneaking by the guard.  

In the 10th, Nichols makes ticks on his first two.  On Howard third Wayne Middaugh's second shot, they throw behind the corner left by the second tick shot.  Stoughton third Jon Mead peels, Glenn puts the guard back, then a discussion of where to place Jeff's next shot.  

Stoughton is Red

They could peel, come around with a corner freeze.  They discuss drawing back four foot, but instead draw top of the four foot (as shown above), resulting in a nose hit by Glenn giving them a simple hit for the win. Announcer Linda states "it really depends how you're feeling and I think today Jeff isn't really feeling the draw".  I disagree.  By placing his rock, Jeff gets to decide where Glenn has to play his rock, and can force it closer to where you want it. (Stoughton's team even discussed on air) the only reason to peel the guard would be if they want the inturn draw and the guard gets in the way.  Having said that, perhaps Jeff did prefer to make a hit with his final shot and that's why he placed it where he did (with absolutely perfect draw weight). 

For those readers who appreciate the math slant to my blog, you should check out Nate Silver's interview with Bill Simmons on Grantland.com.

G'Nite.

Rogers Masters Part Deux

Black Friday has come and gone and Movember is nearly over. The Toronto Argonauts just won the 100th Grey Cup with the quarterback Edmonton moved at the end of last season. Before we get to Part II of last weekend's Masters of Curling, I need to take a moment and plug Around The House, a new Podcast covering the sport of curling. It's hosted by Manitoba's Jordan Bauldic and includes yours truly along with CurlingZone Czar Gerry Geurtz. We're hoping to get an RSS feed set-up soon.

An important note for those gamblers out there.  Curling gambling is underway at Sports Interaction

And now, back to our analysis...

Let's return to the Friday round robin game between Glenn Howard and Kevin Koe, the one I was too tired to expand on in Part 1.

The 5th end (Howard up 2-1) is intentionally blanked by Koe. The intention is to have hammer in the 6th and 8th (final) ends, leaving Howard with hammer in the 7th. This occurs if no end is blanked or stolen. The idea is to go "2 for 1" (2 hammers to one for your opponent). Let's examine this play.

Down 2-1 with hammer with..

4 ends remaining = 40.4%

3 ends remaining = 39.0%

This is very close. Koe isn't losing much by blanking but it doesn't appear that he is gaining either. Let's compare odds based on outcome in the 5th end and 6th end:

Up 1 without hammer (take 2) = 61% (score in 5th end) / 64.4% (score in 6th end)
Tied without hammer (take 1) = 35.9% / 32.9%
Down 2 with hammer (steal of 1 by Howard) = 19.3% / 15%
Up 2 without hammer (take 3) = 80.7% / 85%

Kevin is essentially blanking in order to attempt a deuce in the 6th end to gain 3.4% from scoring two in the 5th end. Note that the reduced odds he would see by being forced to one in the 6th instead of the 5th is 3%. The net of this is a 0.4% gain. A steal (bad) or three (good) is 4.3% better or worse in the 6th versus the 5th end.

Let's look at this another way. Taking two then forcing Howard to one. If Koe does this in the 5th and 6th ends, his odds to win are 67.1%, tied and two ends to play. If he blanks the 5th, takes two in the 6th then forces in the 7th his odds become 79.7% (tied with one end). Remember, general stats for all events show 75% odds if tied with hammer and one end to play but Grand Slams trend closer to 80%.

Now we can see that Koe is putting more pressure on the outcome of the 6th with the goal being a 12.6% improvement if he achieves the same results (take 2/force 1). This gain more than compensates for a steal or force in the 6th versus the 5th end and makes a strong case for this strategy.

Koe is forced to one in the 6th and then the 7th end results in Howard looking at this before third Wayne Middaugh's last rock:

Howard is Red

 

They take nearly 6 minutes (including 1 for a time out) before Wayne launches his stone. This shot resulted in Glenn being rushed at the end of the game. Ironically, earlier this end Joan mentions that strategy is not an issue for these teams and before that Mike Harris mentioned that Glenn is the best in the world at understanding rock positioning.Wayne makes a perfect shot, hitting a piece of the red in the top four foot and moving both yellows out:

Howard now sitting two. In this situation, Howard is trying to score two (88% winning percentage) at the risk of a force to one (60%) or even giving up a steal and having last rock in the last end down one (40%). Ultimately, I agree with the call (and not just because Wayne made it so well). Glenn only needs two to maximize his chance for a win. Any more is just a bonus. I prefer moving the stones around at this stage because bunching more rocks into the area would increase the odds of a steal and bring in a possible steal of two (disaster).

Even if Wayne had killed the red rock off the button, Glenn may still have a possible chance at two but greatly reduced chance for a steal. I'm just surpised it took them so long to recognize the shot.

Kevin then makes a great shot to sit just on top of the Howard stone. After Glenn peels the guard, Kevin puts another one up and Glenn still had a slight chance at two with a very difficult draw. Didn't make it, and he heads to the final end up one without hammer.


Gerry Guertz gets a little video shot in the booth on at the beginning of the 8th end. Did I mention that I'm joining Gerry on a Curling Podcast called Around The House, which is hosted by Jordan Bauldic? Sorry if I missed that.

In the 8th end (Howard up 1 without hammer), Glenn calls for Middaugh to play a straight back raise with board weight. Wayne hits it high side and rolls for a corner. Without hammer, Howard needs to keep the centre guard and though that was the intent (reason for lighter hit weight), they don't get that result. This changes the entire end and puts Koe into a position to take two with reduced risk of a steal. Wayne actually makes up for his miss with a spectacular shot (shown here in telestrator slo-mo instant replay):

Howard is Red

Wayne misses the yellow stone on the button but leaves the raised stone sitting in front of it.

Koe's third Pat Simmons then draws around the corner again and a timeout for Howard as they try to decide what to call. At this stage they have 1:01 left on their "talk-time" clock. Glen makes a great tap and corner freeze, sitting 2nd and a very close third shot it appears.

Howard is Red

Koe attempts to tap the red in front of his shot stone back button but is too heavy and wide and leaves a very makeable double. Glenn has under 40 seconds to make this attempt, plenty of time but cutting it very close. He throws the stone to the high side and misses the double, leaving a fairly simple shot for two and the win for Koe. If only the center guard had still been there or a little more time on the clock.

Kevin Martin vs Jeff Stoughton in the Quarterfinal.

First end of this game and both teams are knee deep into it. 4 rocks in the four foot, 3 more in the eight foot, one in the twelve foot and two guards out front (10 in total and 2 yet to come). Jeff makes a great tap to sit one and Kevin then follows with a double tap to take 1.

In the 5th end, up 2-1 without hammer, Martin's first rock thrown by Ben Hebert is a longish guard. Not sure if that was an error or intentional, we didn't join the broadcast until later in the end. Once Stoughton gets a rock buried top eight foot, Martin lead Ben Hebert is light, top twelve foot. Stoughton begins to throw rocks out to the side, drawing for second shot. Joan and Mike comment it's not a common sight, playing away from the center.  Seemed to make sense given the situation, but agree we don't see it often.

By the time we reach Kevin's final rock, he's facing this:

Martin is Yellow

Kevin attempts the thin double (red lines) rather than the soft weight hit and roll (green line) to the centre. Martin's top yellow sits a well protected third shot. A very aggressive call that I think many players, even at Kevin's level, would not have attempted. He hits the top rock too thick, and surrenders a deuce to Stoughton.

In the 6th, Kevin has a great chance to get two back but comes heavy on his first and Jeff locks his last shot on top of Kevin's, forcing him to a very difficult draw to the side of the pin for two, which he doesn't make.   Score is 3-3 after 6 ends.

At this stage, everything seems to be going Stoughton's way.

In the 7th, Team Martin called time out John Morris final shot, facing this:

Martin is Yellow

They take a moment to discuss the various angles, what they will leave Jeff and what they expect him to call.  Eventually they call a freeze/tap on the second shot yellow stone (based on lead Ben Hebert's suggestion). It's made perfectly. After a hit by Stoughton's third Jon Mead, Martin is facing a similar shot and makes the same freeze. Eventually, Jeff has a double attempt to score one but the result is a steal for Martin.

After a Marc Kennedy triple peel, Kevin chooses to play the 8th rather open, trying to force Jeff to one and go to the extra end with hammer. Jeff in fact misses his last shot, an open hit that needed to stay in the four foot, and Martin steals one and moves on to the semi-final.

The next broadcast is a quarterfinal with Laycock (a Tier 2 qualifier) versus Brandon Jacobs. My Tivo worked overtime here as the first three ends were blanked. After a deuce in the 4th by Laycock, Jacobs attempts a difficult split on his last in the 5th and only manages a single. He dropped from odds of 19.3% (2 down with hammer) to 16.9% (one down without hammer), attempting to tie the game (39%). Well worth the risk if he has even a 15% chance to make it.

Semi-final: Battle of the Kevin's, Koe versus Martin.

$1 million dollars, announced at the beginning of the week, must still be in the minds of these players. Despite the $1 million, they still can't appear to get more than a couple dozen people into the stands. I know it was an early moring draw, but most curling fans are over 60 and usually up by 6 am.

The game appears a little sloppy, though I heard later from Gerry Geurtz (on the Around The House podcast) that there were issues with the ice. Kevin Martin calls a difficult soft hit on his first shot of the game, rather than blasting, and if Koe had been an inch further with his last, they may have stolen three. Instead, it's a steal of two when Martin's last rock draw is heavy.

In the 4th end, Koe is up 3-1 without hammer, With two red rocks in the top rings, he chooses to place a guard rather than peel the Martin corner guard. An aggressive play which surprises me. I think if Koe had only one in the rings he may have blasted the corner. Martin ends up able to play to the wings and if not for a miss by third John Morris, would have been well positioned to score more than one. Instead, Koe is able to place a rock biting the top four foot and Martin eventually comes heavy on his draw, leaving Koe a steal of one (and almost two).

Martin scores a deuce in the 5th, despite one of Morris' shots picking (they were drawing to sit three at the time). Kevin Koe attempts a raise double on his last and can't remove one of Martin's rocks, but sits 2. Martin makes no mistake with the double and pulls within 1, 4-3 for Koe.

Up 5-3 without hammer in the 7th, Koe's squad takes an incredibly long time deciding whether or not to have second Carter Rycroft peel on his last shot. They do peel and their fears of a draw around their staggered rocks in the house are avoided when John Morris comes heavy with his first shot draw attempt. Koe third Pat Simmons blasts the rocks in the house and result in an eventual blank.

At the start of the eight end they show Jack Nicklaus, Roger Federer and Kevin Martin, and their respective "Grand Slams". I fully expect Jack and Roger have no idea how close they are to being usurped. Also hope Jack did not see the photograph as it appeared he had three chins.

Pat Simmons misses a couple of shots badly, flashes a peel and heavy on a draw. Morris misses his last, moving the centre guard. Koe eventually faces this with his final shot:

Martin is Yellow

Koe's squad discusses the last shot, trying to ensure they don't risk giving Martin a chance at a possible three, which will lose the game. Rather than playing a freeze, Koe decides to play a double on the top two yellow. He ends up kissing his own red on the button to the back of the rings and leaves a possible shot for three. It's not an easy shot and Martin hits it a little thick and only gets one.


Off to an extra end, Koe with last rock.

On Kevin Koe's first shot, he's looking at this:

Martin is Yellow

After much discussion, they decide to play the peel.  They consider playing into the rings now, worried that the last shot will be difficult.  Because of the red corner guard, the draw to the button in not routine (like they usually are :).  If Martin makes a perfect shot, they may have to play a double to blank.  Kevin Martin attempts a hit but rolls slightly to the open side, leaving Koe and draw ot the four foot.  A little heavy, but hangs on by a hair (and a measure) for the win.

Koe goes on to battle in the finals against BC's Jim Cotter (with Manitoba import Jason Gunnlaugson at third).  After a steal of two in the first, Koe rebounds with a deuce of his own and, after a force in the third, cracks a three ender in the 5th to go ahead 5-3.Unlike the Martin game in the semi-finals, it never gets closer and they take home the top prize and sole possession of the title "only team that can win the grand slam and $1 million dollars".

Until the Canada Cup...

Rogers Reboots the Grand Slams

2012 ended with an exciting World Men's Curling finals, a game which Canada's Glenn Howard rink was fortunate to come through with a victory. I plan to take a look back at that game later this season, but for now let's begin the new era in televised curling, the Rogers Grand Slams (RGS for short?).

To any of those who are uncertain what this new era means, Rogers is not simply broadcasting the Slams, it actually owns them outright. CBC is sub-lisenced to broadcast draws, including the finals this past weekend. We can ponder on the meaning of this ownership arrangement, and potential risks involved, but that can be left for another time. For now I will stay positive as my Tivo recovers from recording the 20 plus hours of curling coverage. With more than a cable sports channel per million people in Canada (35), it always seemed strange that we can't get more curling on television. If ESPN (and TSN) can broadcast over 10 hours of three guys playing poker (full disclosure, I watched it all), curling should be able to find more airtime somewhere.

This event introduced a two tier format with 18 teams in 3 groups, battling in a round robin format for 6 spots and a separate 16 team triple knock-out for 2 more spots. Steve Laycock was the only Tier 2 team to reach the semi-finals. I'll be interested to find out more about future plans for the Slams and how this format will evolve.

First end, first game, the first Kevin Martin shot of the new RGS, and, after coming up light (or possibly the rock "picked"), we catch a little colourful language from the Olympic gold medal skip. It would not be his last expletive, as another slipped during the semi-final on Sunday. Rogers is cable, so I speculate there are no fines issued or need for a 15 second delay. The foul language isn't needed (though it's occasionally amusing) and some will chastise Martin for his "behaviour", but with $1 million on the line, I suppose a slip or two should be expected.

The $1 million always looks good in a marketing campaign (anyone remember this lucky guy who's still getting paid 7 years later after kicking a field goal), but I expect the chance of a curling Grand Slam in a single season to be pretty low (perhaps I'll work the math out in another article). I'd be interested to know what the insurance cost was for the $1 million (assuming Rogers didn't insure it themselves). I expect its lower than the chance that your fearless CWM author could win an $80,000 car with a hole in one last July...

5 iron from 187, no kidding.

OK, Back to the actual curling...

The first televised draw sees Kevin Martin vs John Epping. We have Joan McKusker and Mike Harris, back from their CBC days, along with Rob Faulds. Unfortunately, the three of them make up nearly half the live audience (and attendance didn't appear toimprove much the entire week). Again, I want to be positive, so we'll save that rant for another time. I like Mike and Joan and given the chance to do more games than usual can only improve their coverage. Vic Rauter must be nearing the 10,000 hour mark by now, right? If you missed it, check out Vic's great interview with Dean Gemmel on the Curling Show.

Joan mentions that this Martin team is 118-2 when getting a deuce in the first end. Luckily for Epping, after John Morris comes up light and Kevin's first (F%^$*#) rock picks, Martin is forced to one. You may recall the 5-Rock experiment last year during the BDO Open. I expect that as players improve even further, beyond even the skill levels of team Martin circa-2008-2010, we will need to implement a 5-Rock or a no-hit, or return to the Ryan Express era of the late 80s, early 90s where the game loses the interest of the fans (both of them in the stands at this Masters...ok I'll stop now).

Epping makes a great triple raise for two in the second end. Blank in the third and then, Kevin Martin makes one of the worst shots I've seen him throw on television. He even comments they could give up a steal of three and, as is often the case, his intuitive sense of the game is correct. Note the new drawing capabilities of my Strategy Board, providing a reasonable facsimile of the real live TV action. This is brought to you by Jeff Rogers' Curling Stategy Tool, available on Itunes.

Kevin Martin is yellow

Down 4 with hammer, Epping eventually wins in 6 ends.

Rogers coverage of Draw 4 has Jeff Stoughton vs Glenn Howard. After a force in the first end, a three in the second and a steal in the third helps Glenn's squad cruise to victory. The three seemed unlikely as Stoughton sat two after thirds rocks.

Stoughton is Red

Jeff comes light on his attempt to corner freeze, bighting the top twelve. Glenn comes around the Stoughton rock and corners onto the red rock, sitting second. Still, how scary can this be?

Jeff comes a little heavy and leaves this:

Stoughton is Red

Mike Harris immediately comments that Glenn has a double for two and might get lucky for three. The look of disgust on Jeff's face implies that he knows this as well. In fact he could give up 4. Glenn's shooter spins out of play but the result is three and a two point lead. The third end has Jeff facing this with his last:

Rather than play the in-turn tap, jamming his rock into the yellow stones, he instead plays a soft tap out-turn, through the port, attempting a rub of the yellow Howard stone. Siting one before he throws, Jeff does what Mike Harris suspected could happen and instead gives up a steal of one. Howard eventualy wins, leading three up coming home.

Koe vs Howard on Friday night is a close game throughout. Koe's difficult draw for 2 in the second picks and its tied 1-1 until Howard is forced to a single in the 4th end.

In the 5th end, Koe doesn;t throw a corner and Joan is "shocked". Kevin appears to be comfortable taking the hammer into the 6th end and playing the "two-hammers-to-one" theory. This being that if you have the hammer in the 6th, if no one steals or blanks, you should have the hammer in the 8th as well. I've written on this before, and the numbers don't appear to sway this decision as right or wrong. I've seen enough of it in the last few years that perhaps a full column on it in future would make sense.

The boring play in the 5th did allow Mike and Joan to start a discussion with Glenn Howard during the end! Can you imagine Vin Scully chatting up the Dodgers catcher while he's calling pitches in a major league baseball game? Come to think of it, that's a great idea.


Koe is forced to a single in the 6th. The seventh and eight ends had plenty of the drama that makes curling a great television sport. I mean of course the scene of four men with brooms standing around, looking at rocks and trying to decide what to do. If I didn;t need to get up in 5 hours I'd probably add some more coverage of these final ends but 2,014 words in and we haven't even gotten to the Playoffs! I'm already starting to miss the shortened CBC coverage of the Grnd Slams.

Howard had less than 30 seconds on his "talking time" clock. Perhaps it influenced his miss on the final shot, leaving Koe a shot for two and the win.

More from the Masters Playoff rounds in Part 2. G'Nite.

Posted with Blogsy

CSI: Womens World Curling 3-4 Game (and The Finals)

There’s been some discussion on the internet and even classic media regarding Canada’s loss to (South) Korea in the 3-4 game at this years Womens World Curling Championship.  Korea, starting with hammer, appeared to have a plan of attempting to blank each end and reduce the game to as few ends as possible.  Ideally, blank 9 ends and have hammer tied coming home.  The general criticism has been Heather Nedohin and Team Canada allowed Korea to play this way and should have attempted a more aggressive game plan.  I wanted to know if it was actually the case of strategy, shot-making or some other reason (maybe their opponent played well), that Canada could lose the game and miss the Gold medal game for the third time in four years. 

1st end: Tight centre by CAN, KOR throws to the open side, back eight foot.  Two hit and sticks, then Canada rolls out and KOR peels out the end.

2^nd end: Centre guard by CAN, KOR again throws to the side.  CAN makes a good come around (rather than  hitting the open stone), but KOR successful in hitting and rolling to the open.  A great double by CAN third Beth Iskiw gets them out of the end, another blank.

3^rd end: Tight centre guard, KOR throws to open side, CAN again comes around centre guard, back four foot. KOR makes a great freeze to the top of the CAN stone. 

Canada is Yellow

First stone from CAN second Jessica Mair is a little wide, but KOR also misses and leaves CAN sitting two. 

 

Little short on the next come around, allows KOR to make a nice hit and roll.  Beth makes a nice tap to leave CAN sitting two. 

Eventually, KO forced to a draw to the button (with some backing) for one.  Game on?

Can’t argue much with Canada’s strategy to this point.  In the 2^nd and 3^rd ends, played aggressive and came away with a force with 7 ends to go.  What should not be forgotten is the great shot-making by KOR.

4^th end:  CAN with hammer, down one.  KOR draws into the four foot, CAN throws a corner and KOR plays a centre guard.  CAN fails to bury and sits beside shot stone, it’s quickly removed by KOR.  Nice double by Jessica, with a roll to the open, KOR follows with a roll back to the centre.  Beth, attempting a hit a roll, rolls out of the rings.  KOR draws to an open house with 2 guards, but comes heavy.  Beth draws top twelve around the centre, KOR gets in behind to the eight foot.

CAN skip Heather Nedohin ticks the front guard in her attempt to hit and sit two.  KOR hits and stays and CAN is forced to a nose it for a single.

5^th end: 1-1.  CAN puts up a centre, KOR throws to the open side, Heather calls for a hit and roll. Two hits and sticks then Jessica rolls out.  KOR peels out for another blank.

6^th end: CAN puts up centre and KOR throws up a corner guard (uncertain if intentional or they were light).  CAN draws to button but leaves a chunk open and KOR hits and rolls partially behind their corner.  Trade hits then CAN able to sit two after Beth’s first.  KOR rolls out on their hit and Beth puts her last fully buried, nearly biting the four foot.  KOR is a little heavy and chaps and rolls to the open.  CAN is able to sit two on their last, leaving KOR a difficult hit and roll for one. 

They are unable to execute and CAN steals.

7^th end: 2-1 CAN, KOR with Hammer.  CAN draws top eight and KO throws a corner guard.  CAN plays the tap (rather than a centre).  KOR hits and stays for second, CAN hits and rolls out and sits one.  KOR elects to draw around the corner, but is heavy and bites the back of the house.  CAN chooses to draw around the corner, in front of the KOR rock, to sit two.  KOR attempts a freeze but taps CAN back.  Beth makes a nice hit a roll.  Great double by KOR third Seul-Bee Lee including a roll behind the corner.  Beth makes a soft hit and roll to centre, CAN sits two.  KOR makes a hit and rolls in front of the stones at the back of the house, but still in the open.  Heather hits but jams on her own and leaves KOR sitting second and third.  KOR skip Ji-Sun Kim hits the open CAN stone, but jams on her own and leaves CAN sitting second shot.  Heather rolls out but a break for CAN as KOR rolls out and takes a single.

Not sure what all the fuss is about a boring game.  This is entertaining.  Two strategy decisions in question:

1.       CAN hitting the open stone in the 5^th rather than playing a draw. Though the rock was at tee line and very possible to make a hit and roll.  Nearing the mid-stage of the game, perhaps Heather wants to avoid giving up a deuce and is being patient without hammer.  I don’t mind this at all.

2.       Tapping their stone in the 7^th rather than playing a centre guard.  I’d prefer a guard over the tap.  A centre could not be removed and would force KOR into the draw game that CAN would like to see.  But it is consistent with Heather’s strategy which appeared to be conservative without hammer.  The end result is a single, so the mission is accomplished.

8^th end: 2-2, CAN with Hammer.  KOR plays a tight off-centre guard.  Canada draws around the wide side to top four foot.  KOR attempts a draw around the centre line side but comes a little deep.  CAN freezes to their own, taking the same line as their first. KOR then draws beside that stone on the centre line side.  Likely KOR sits one (its close) and three, CAN second and fourth. CAN peels the guard.  KOR plays a guard, CAN peels.  On Beth’s last they discuss possibly making a play in the house, but instead peel the guard. 

KOR draws to top eight in front of their stone.  Heather hits it and now sits first and fourth.  KOR makes a hit on the yellow stones, removing shot rock, leaving CAN a testy hit for a single.  Heather makes it.

9^th end: 3-2 CAN, KOR with Hammer.  CAN heavy twice with their attempts at a centre guard.  They then choose to hit the tight KOR stone with Jessica’s first, rather than throw a centre guard (that could be removed).  Couple of peels then trade hits and a blank is the result.

The 9^th was simply poor execution (those guards aren’t completely “free”, you still need to make them).  In the 8^th, they could have made a play in the rings with Beth’s last shot.  The peel was a conservative play, ensuring Heather would have a shot for one.  Given the set-up of the house, I don’t blame her.  If they come around to the button, KOR has a tap and now a steal is very likely.  If they try to tap the top red out, they may leave the shooter in front of the other two yellows, covering their own tap.  If KOR makes the draw from the other side to the button, again it’s a heap of trouble.

10^th end: 3-2 CAN, KOR with Hammer.  CAN top four, KOR throws a corner, then CAN with tight centre guard.  KOR sits beside CAN rock, overlapping slightly, CAN taps and sits top eight in front of both stones.  KOR plays tap on CAN stone from the other turn, lays second and third. CAN plays nice soft hit (even ticking the guard) and sits two top four foot frozen. 

KOR plays runback and manages to guard their own, sitting second. 

CAN attempts the runback and makes the peel.  After a time out and discussion with their coach, KOR plays a tap to sit second, shooter sitting in front of CAN shot stone and third, behind the corner guard. 

Beth attempts a corner freeze, little heavy but CAN sits two.  KOR makes hit and rolls towards the corner.  Heather attempts freeze and, like Beth, taps and rolls toward centre to sit two.  KOR makes the double and manages to sit 2, CAN a close third at the back eight. 

CAN chooses to freeze in front of shot stone and KOR then makes the tap for two and wins.

Canada looked in good position sitting two in the top four after Jessica’s last, but an end changes quickly.  Korea’s peel removes a CAN stone and guards their second shot. Beth’s raise attempt was missed and the danger begins.  Canada could instead perhaps have placed another guard and played more aggressive, but that would still leave options for Korea to score two. I did not like the final shot call by Heather and would have preferred an attempt to tap and roll off the shot stone, behind a cover.  Granted, an extremely difficult shot, but the freeze that was called left a fairly simple tap for two.

               

Key observations:

• In the 8^th and 10^th ends CAN was unable to get the rocks into favorable positions.
• KOR strategy was much less conservative (or boring) than it would appear.  They placed a corner guard in the 6^th (after a CAN centre) and again in the 7^th when one down.  They threw up a centre guard in the 4^th when up one.    KO played a draw to the side in the 1^st through 3^rd ends and again in the 5^th end.  This strategy worked in the 1^st, 2^nd and 5th due to half shots by CAN, and failed in the 3^rd (single for KOR).  
• To force an aggressive game, you can’t hit and roll out, you need to bury your come arounds and you can’t put free guards in the house.
• CAN only had hammer for the 4^th and 8^th ends.  Without hammer, when faced with draws to the open by KOR, they hit twice and attempted come arounds twice.  Some other options: throw a second guard (very aggressive) or corner freeze (slightly less aggressive).  Don’t really fault their choices, but they failed to execute in three of those ends.
• And the rematch for the Bronze?  Strategy started similar (draw to the side in the first end by KOR), but scoreboard and different missed/made shots resulted in a more aggressive contest, won by Canada. 

It’s my opinion Canada’s strategy was “aggressive enough” in the 3-4 game, and shot results and scoreboard (Canada unable to tie with hammer until 8^th end) were a greater factor in the resulting low score.

The Finals

Only got to watching the finals between Sweden and the Swiss this evening (24 hours later).  The Mad Men premiere took precedent last night.  For anyone who has a Tivo, it still has the best (and smoothest) fast forward options and provides the ability to watch 3 or more hours of anything (golf, football, curling, the Oscars) in under 30 minutes.  

Some observations on this game. 

• In the first end, Switzerland’s Mirjam Ott calls the first rock into the rings and Sweden’s skip and lead stone Margaretha Sigfridsson hits and stays.  After the Swiss hit and stick in the top eight foot, Sweden attempts corner guards, which the Swiss proceed to peel (and Sweden puts them back up) until Sweden’s third finally hits the rock in the house. Mirjam could have opted to sit two up to thirds final stone, but never wavered from her strategy.  Granted, I don’t follow a lot of International Womens curling (I keep hoping for the PPV channel), but is this a common approach?  And I heard Korea was conservative.
• In the second end Sweden puts up a corner guard that is “free”.  Ok, I’ve seen this game before.
• Down 2-0, a good call and great shot in the 4^th end by Mirjam.  Facing a Swedish stone biting the eight foot off to the side, she instead chooses to draw around a guard at an attempt to take 2.  Executed perfectly and, after Margaretha misses the run back attempt, the Swiss draw for two points.
• The Swiss, down 4-3 with hammer, choose to blank the 7^th end after Sweden comes into the rings with their first stone.  I previously wrote about this strategy from the 2010 Brier here http://curlwithmath.blogspot.ca/2010/03/brier-notes-and-blanking-7th-end.html when a similar situation occurred in the round robin and finals with Howard and Koe.
• Lots of team discussions in the 9^th end.  Do Vic, Linda and Russ like to remain quiet when the teams are talking to benefit the Swiss and Swedish viewers? 

An entertaining back half of the game with 5 great finishing shots, including the final tap and roll for two by Mirjam Ott for the win. 

Only two more major events to go!  Of course, I mean the Mens World Championship and the Last Chance Bonspiel in Hibbing, Minnesota http://hibbingcurling.com/lastchance.html. 

Where am I?

I'm in Saskatoon at the 2012 Tim Horton's Brier.

I've been blogging at The Curling News.  Keep reading me there all week and then look for a CWM recap in the near future.