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Thursday, December 5, 2013

Quick one before I head to the Patch...

It feels late, I'm exhausted, and I need to get to the Patch early for an American Brew so that I can leave early and get to bed to be rested for tomorrow morning and the oddly planned final draw of the Trials at 8:30 AM.  But I promised some quick analysis of the Mens and here it is:

The view for Brad Jacobs until Sunday, from the top

Epping, Howard, Stoughton and Koe are all out.  They may all be in the patch tonight, getting prepared for the morning draw.  Only Koe needs to "take it easy" as his game against Mike McEwen has ramifications for possible play-offs.  In 2009 I'm certain the final draw was Thursday night which made that night in the Patch one of the best ever.  All but three mens teams were done and having a grand ole time that night.  Now, half the field would rather enjoy the evenning without having to rise and shine to play a game they would prefer to skip (I mean "skip", not skip).

IF Martin wins against Morris, he gets hammer in the semi-final.

IF Morris loses that same game against his old skip, he will have to see what Mike McEwen does in his game against Kevin Koe.  

IF McEwen wins, he's in a tie-breaker IF Morris loses.

IF Morris wins, McEwen is out and Morris has hammer in a re-match against Martin.

IF Epping wins against Brad Jacobs, Epping will increase his stats in wins and losses, and Brad will not be the least bit disappointed.

And in the battle of the two oldest skips, in a game we all expected would matter, IF Jeff or Glenn win they get absolutely nothing.  It seems so strange that the TV game will NOT be the two best skips in the last 7 years (and pretty darn high on the list of greatest curlers even before that) not named Kevin Martin.

Never did come up with a caption for this one...

Some Expected Odds (and, like in the Womens analysis, I'm going to assume every team here is equal):

Odds that Jacobs goes to Sochi (58%).  They've looked strong all week and will be difficult to beat, especially with hammer (although they didn't need it last winter at the Brier or Worlds, until the final game).

Odds that Martin gets to finals = 50% and wins = 20%

Odds that Morris gets to final = 44% and wins = 17.6%

Odds that McEwen gets to final = 6% and wins = 2.4%

Oh, and to follow up on Womens odds:

Jones = 60% to win

Homan = 24%

Middaugh = 9.6%

Carey = 6.4%

Good luck to all and please, for those who need it, get some rest.  You have a big game tomorrow.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for all the blogs Kevin! Always enjoy reading your stuff. BTW-That picture of your friends basement was classic! I think I'm going to have mine redone to match. Have great time this weekend. Rich Hart