Even if you are not a hockey fan, the Miracle on Ice from Lake
Placid in 1980 is a seminal moment, with USA shocking the world
by defeating the Soviet Union and ultimately taking the Gold medal. You could make an argument that hockey leapt
from obscurity in the American sports scene to take a stronghold as one of the
big four (kinda?).
Perhaps curling will take a leap from its position of punchlines in a stand-up routine to a legitimate sport only mocked in affection.
Even if the John Shuster rink (yes, curlers call teams a
“rink”) loses to the Swedish swashbuckler Niklas Edin, the win against Canada's Kevin Koe and Silver medal for
USA could help curling grow even further south of the 49th
parallel. Perhaps more Americans will join Mr
T, The
Boss, George
Clooney, Homer, and countless
others, and get hooked on the game each winter rather than just every 4 years.
With all due respect to mini-Herb Brooks, the
comparisons of Team Shuster to the 1980 USA Hockey team is an unfair
comparison. That USA hockey team had no
chance. If I were allowed to gamble at 8
years old someone named Vinny or Rocco would still be looking for me. John Shuster is battle tested, having
appeared in 7 World Championships and 4 Olympics, including a bronze at the
2016 Worlds. The knock on this team has
been their many International appearances without reaching the summit, but I
had them as dark horses heading into this event. The key final draw (yes, curlers call a series of games a "draw") against Great Britain was
an example of how they could draw (different definition here) on that experience to execute at the biggest
moment while minimizing any strategic errors or mental mistakes. From the vantage point on my couch, the Kyle
Smith squad is talented, but lacked the composure that comes from having been in
the moment before. Shuster is
deserving of their medal and have earned
it, not just this week but from years of preparation.
If you haven’t seen this blog before, think of it as Curling
meets Bill James or Moneyball-Curling. There were several
interesting scenarios in the semifinal game, let’s examine a few of them:
First End: 0-0 - CAN has Hammer
Nothing really to discuss here. Most of the week we saw teams go at each
other right away but with the emotion running high in what is the most
difficult game to play (a win guarantees a medal, a loss does not), not a bad
choice by both teams to run them up the sheet and end up with a blank end.
Second End: 0-0 - CAN has Hammer
Canada third Marc Kennedy, perhaps the greatest double peel
thrower in history, misses both of his attempts and in fact jams on his last
shot to leave USA sitting two…
Canada is Red
Shuster chooses to hit and roll off the Canada stone at 9
o’clock. As Canadian broadcaster (and
1998 Silver medalist) Mike Harris telestrates, it’s a conservative call. They have Canada on the ropes and might be
better drawing to sit three and block the path to the button.
I understand their concern. With Kevin Koe
you are always worried about leaving a big shot for 3 or more points and John
is being cautious to limit Canada to no worse than 2. However, he may in fact
be increasing the odds Kevin gets two.
Kevin Koe up two with 8 ends remaining is 30-5 (86%) since 2010. I’m in Mike’s camp here and would have liked
USA to bring the pressure, even if it introduces a risk of three points. When you are the underdog, it’s important to take
chances and this is a great opportunity that may not come later. Even as the favorite, I expect Kevin would
have played the draw in this situation.
USA is fortunate that Koe’s draw was heavy and Canada settles for only
one point.
Third End: 1-0 CAN –
USA has Hammer
With three rocks remaining, Canada sits three and you might
suspect they have no worries.
But this demonstrates how a corner guard can create points
for the team with hammer. A fantastic
roll by John on his first forces Kevin to play a soft tap. The USA stone jams, sitting second and USA
could have had scored a deuce if John’s final shot had curled an inch (2.54 cm)
more. It’s 1-1 after 3 ends.
Fourth End: 1-1 – CAN
with Hammer
Two runbacks by Canada second Brent Laing don’t go as planned
(as do the next two attempts by Kennedy) and USA has the Canucks chasing. On John’s final shot, rather than place a
guard and allow Kevin to draw full four foot for a single (likely >95% for
him by this stage), USA smartly places their rock on the side of the four foot,
leaving a delicate hit.
No mistake and Kevin makes his final shot look easy,
but it was more difficult than it appeared, especially knowing the score goes
up afterwards. A steal here would have
dropped their Win Probability (WP) from 58.5% to 41.5%.
Fifth End: 2-1
CAN. USA with Hammer
An interesting strategy by Canada to place two centre guards
nearly backfires as USA seems poised to score a bunch.
This is a very unorthodox call by Koe. The
double centre guard is a very aggressive play that is most often used when tied
or down without hammer and often not this early in the game.
Because USA had placed a corner guard, Kevin knew they wouldn’t be
facing two rocks in the four foot. The
ploy is likely an attempt to get many rocks in play and put USA in a less comfortable position, but it’s Canada who gets into trouble. I’m not enamored with the call as one of Team
Koe’s strengths (usually, perhaps not this game) is the run back, and by
placing two guards they are making these more difficult. It appeared to be an unnecessary risk without
hammer and something uncharacteristic from this squad. A decision John may second guess is playing
out to the wings by third Tyler George.
Rather than be tempted to play on it, Kevin and Marc decide it’s now or
never and draw behind centre, forcing play back to the middle and ultimately holding
USA to a single. As Canada lead Ben
Hebert says, it felt like taking three points to escape that end. On John’s final stone, USA does take some of
that underdog risk, attempting a long runback for 4 points.
USA finger-crossing attempt for four
From my vantage (at home, on my couch) and based on
the result, it didn’t look makeable and seemed more likely to produce a steal (perhaps
of 2 or 3) rather than the mit full they hoped for. Even the USA bench looks skeptical.
Um, yah, ah, um....
Great line by John as he and Tyler study the shot however, “the
physics just doesn’t allow it”.
Sixth End: 2-2. CAN
with Hammer
Flip side of the hazards seen the previous end. Canada fails
to place their corner guard in the Free Guard Zone, allowing USA to hit and sit
two. It’s a conservative call and
perhaps if their first stone had been above the four foot rather than behind
the tee-line, they may have thrown a centre guard.
The result, Canada has no chance
for a multiple score and is chasing just to blank.
USA kills an end, shrinking the game down to 4 ends.
Seventh End: 2-2
CAN. CAN with Hammer
Two half-shots by Brent and Marc lead to another blank
end. Koe is not concerned however, they
are tied with 3 ends remaining. USA has
been conservative without hammer the last 2 ends and shortened the game, but
time is running out. The average WP at
this stage for team with hammer is 64.4%.
As you might suspect for Koe in this position, it's higher than average (44-18 or
71% since 2010).
Eighth End: 2-2
CAN. CAN with Hammer
On skip’s first, John could hit to sit two but chooses to draw behind
centre instead…
Baby blue and grey with a red hat. Priceless
A deuce for Canada (USA WP=14%) is only 9% better than a
three (WP=5%) so the strategy is to create a force or steal, even at the risk
of a big end for your opponent. I like
the call because Kevin would either be left with a double to sit two, a hit and
roll to sit first and third buried (often pronounced
“berried”), or have the opportunity
to draw top button, leaving a difficult shot for USA and a likely deuce. Better for John to attempt to make the draw
first, but...don’t be heavy (he is). Kevin
has a great chance to score here but instead rubs the rock in the top
twelve. A great roll by John and Kevin,
going wider with a different path, surprisingly comes well short with his
attempt and an unlikely steal of two puts Canada behind with two ends to go.
Ninth End: 4-2
USA. CAN with Hammer
It appears to be another blank end until Shuster’s
last shot. Rather than hitting the
Canada stone in the back four foot, John chooses to try a freeze and force
Canada to a single.
Tyler tapping for the freeze
I dislike this call,
and luckily for USA, Kevin misses a makeable shot for two and is forced to a
single. I understand what John is
thinking. At worst, surrender two and
have final stone in the last end (WP=79% for top teams, 75% average). The
problem I see, in most cases he will either leave a blank anyway, or a shot for
two points (which he did). Leave the blank and USA is up two points
in the final end, WP = 89%. If Kevin takes
one (which was the result) USA’s WP only increase 1% to 90%! The outcome USA took a risk (10%) to achieve,
only netted them a 1% advantage. Teams
in the past in Koe’s situation (two down in the 9th end) have
sometimes intentionally taken a single point. Kevin Martin did this in 2007 against Blake
MacDonald to win the Alberta finals and qualify for the Brier (Canadian Championship). Blake was actually the fourth for that team (threw the final stones). The skip was Kevin Koe.
Tenth End: 4-3 USA.
USA with Hammer
The moment where lead stones mean everything. John Landsteiner of USA makes both his tick
shots and Canada is left with nothing covering the four foot. Koe smartly attempts to set-up a double roll
towards centre using two staggered corner guards.
The idea is to have the shooter roll to a
centre guard and the impacted stone spins off the other corner guard and rolls
into the centre of the rings.
A low
percentage play but at this stage it is their best chance to extend the
contest. Mike Harris mentions that Ryan
Fry (2014 Olympic Champion) threw a similar shot at the Brier a few years
ago. Kevin is unable to make the miracle
shot and ultimately John Shuster is left with a nose hit for one point and a
trip to the Gold medal game.
Canada clearly had an off game but Team Shuster were
ready for the moment. They were able to keep it close (despite starting without hammer),
and eventually capitalize in the right situations. Koe failed to score more than a single in the
game, something that had not happened the entire event.
USA started 2-4 and have won four in a row, against the
two tie breaker teams (Great Britain and Switzerland) and twice against the
three-time Canadian and two-time World Champion.
Raise a glass to the lads from Duluth, MN (and one from McFarland, WI)…and then on to Swedes.
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