EBOOK NOW AVAILABLE! End Game: An Olympic Viewer's Guide to Curling

It's finally here. End Game: An Olympic Viewer's Guide to Curling

You can find it for Kindle at Amazon.ca, Amazon.com or Amazon.(insert country code here)

You can find epub version at Smashwords.com 

It will soon be available at other online retailers like Barnes&Noble, Sony, Kobo, Apple, and others.  If you get it and enjoy it (or at least don't hate it), please post a review at the web site where you purchased.  

Description:

The essential guide for watching curling. From the basics and a brief history lesson to detailed explanation of strategy so you can watch from home as the ultimate couch skip. 

Curling meets Moneyball with advanced statistics applied to the popular Olympic sport. Includes diagrams, charts and over 30 analyzed situations to make you more prepared than the players on the ice. All lightly coated with the same humour found in the author's award winning articles for The Curling News.

And, from the Introduction:

This book is an attempt to do several things. One thing it won't do is teach you how to curl.

This book will be of interest to curlers, but my primary goal is to educate the television viewer on curling and its strategy. This book is for someone who lives in Florida, Texas, Brazil or South Africa, and may have never seen snow much less a curling club.  Curling has a need for physical skill, but the real fan interest lies with how the play develops into a multitude of options, presenting many strategic decisions that can be analyzed and dissected from your couch. 

You could watch or curl in thousands of games and the very next contest will present situations that you have never seen before. This variety and constant challenge to work out a solution is what makes curling interesting to anyone; player, fan or occasional observer.  If you are a casual viewer, this book will help you understand the game well enough to question the decisions you see on the ice. If you are a fan, you will enjoy the brief history lesson, written with limited knowledge, even less research and a dash of humour to help it go down smoother. If you're a player, a serious fan, or enjoy analytics in sports, the charts and analysis, some of which have never been seen before, will drag you into the book, the same way you're pulled into a game, to challenge my judgement and claim that I am wrong.

I await your challenge.

Howard Dethroned and Virtue Deposed

What a weekend.  Seattle took care of business, while Peyton Manning was left with a story to kibitz with his boss about (Elway and the Broncos were trounced 55-10 by the '49ers in 1990 and 42-10 by the Redskins in 1988).  What were the odds they were going to show that Montana highlight yesterday?.

Howard Streak Ends at 8!

Glenn Howard was shockingly upset in the Ontario provincial final, ending a run of 8 in a row.  The previous streak was 4 by Glenn's brother Russ between 1991 to 1994 (which included Glenn at third, of course).  Prior to the 1990s you have to go back to the 40s to find a team that won more than 2 years in a row (Percy Hall, '44-46).

Without spending an inordinate amount of time finding the correct data, (ok, I spent more time than I should have considering I'm about to release an ebook this Thursday!), I thought I'd try to estimate the odds of 8 OCA Tankard wins in a row.

I did a probability calculation estimating Glenn beats 7 teams in the field 90% of the time and 3 teams 75%.

Assumed 7 wins gets in playoff and 6 does 2/3 the time, but no tie-breakers (not time for that).

I realize they only had 10 teams in the field for 2006, '07 and '09, but I'm not adjusting for that.

Assumed the other 3 teams in a playoff all will be the harder competion (so Glenn is only 75% against them).

Added a hammer factor in the page playoff (not RR), where team with hammer has added 5% and without subtracts 5%.

If 10-0, Glenn has hammer in 1-2 game

If 9-1, Glenn has hammer 2/3 of the time in the 1-2 game

If 8-2, Glenn has hammer in 1-2 game 1/3, no hammer 2/3 (we assume he always make the 1-2 game at 8-2.  Yes, this is flawed.)

If 7-3, Glenn makes 1-2 game (without hammer) 1/3, has hammer in 3-4 1/3 and no hammer in 3-4 game 1/3.

If 6-4 Glenn makes 3-4 with hammer 1/3 and without 1/3 and misses play-offs 1/3.

The calculation results in Glenn making the playoffs 98.1% and winning a single event 69.4% and probability to win 8 straight is 5.4%

If I adjust the win probability against harder teams to 80%, it still only goes up to 13.3%

An impressive feat that may never be duplicated and Glenn, Richard, Brent, Craig and Wayne should be extremely proud.

Saskatchewan gets Spicey!

Brock Virtue was ejected from the Saskatchewan Provincial final game.  In the 8th end, Brock expressed some frustration, by doing what many past players have done, scolding their broom.  Unfortunately, Brock decided to do this in front of the official, apparently while looking at them and smiling (ok, I might have added that part).

Recall, this same team had a player (Chris Schille) removed from a playoff game last provincials.

I wasn't there so I prefer not to judge the specific situation or the actions of either side.

However, curling needs more colour, more character, and more life.  If you are going to cheer on Brad Jacobs fist pumping the crowd (and possibly disrupting another sheet, yes I saw his Justin Leonard at Brookline display at the Trials), then you also need to allow the negative emotion to burst out.  It is sports people, not lawn bowling (oh wait, is that a sport?).

I'm not condoning Brock's actions, as I said, I wasn't there to judge.  From what it sounds like, it was likely not a pertinent action.  But wasn't curling always a sport policed by the players?  If Brock did not disrupt the opponent or put anyone in harm, what is the issue?  Decorum?  Please.

In defence of the official, if Brock did actually perform this broom mutilating act while looking into the whites of their eyes, I suppose I also would have tossed him (or put him across my knee for a spanking), but perhaps it should never have gotten to that.

I would suspect (again, not in Saskatchewan and haven't talked to the team so I don't know the whole story) Team Virtue is starting to feel the spotlight is on them, rightly or wrongly.  The problem with a spotlight is that sometimes those who want to perform will put on their best show.

Manitoba Eludes McEwen Again

This might have been the year that the majority of Manitobans were rooting for Mike McEwen.  Jeff is a great winner and the team is dearly appreciated by everyone, but you'd have to think the empathy for Mike is starting to tip tthe scales in his favour.  I haven't watched the 1-2 game yet (it's sitting on my Tivo), but it looked like a great game.  Yesterdays final however must have left the fans feeling more saddness than joy.  At some point even Jeff must start to feel even a little sympathy for his provincial opponent in 3 of his last 4 finals. But he's also whispering, "your time will come lads, but not just yet".

As impressive as Glenn's results have been, Jeff's must be considered nearly equal.  Or more impressive if your a Manitoba supporter who claims the Safeway Select is harder than the OCA Tankard round robin format.  I don't know if the Manitoba modified double-double knockout (should be sponsored by Tim Hortons maybe) is harder to win than Ontario, but it is harder to understand.

Since the end of the boycott in 2003, Stoughton has won 7 of 11 Buffaloes.  Sorry, no time for the math on that but as someone who grew up in Manitoba and never thought 7 in a career was impossible, Jeff has done it in half a career. 

Congratulations to all provincial winners and good luck next year to those who fell short, including the Lobel brothers in Ontario.  My good friend Steve Lobel (third) and brother Rob (skip) had a terrible start at the Ontario Tankard but managed to defeat Epping and Rumfeldt (keeping both out of a tie-breaker), they lost in an extra-end to eventual winner Bice/Balsdon and even stole in 10 and 11 for a nailbiting win against  Team Canada, Rachel Homan Mark Homan.  

 

(A Belated) Christmas Wrap of the Roar

I was there.  And I'm still surprised.  Not surprised that Jacobs won, I watched them at the Brier and you knew they had the talent and the fortitude.  Mind you, so did everyone else in this mens field.  I was surprised at how things transpired.  Martin winning two games he had no business winning, then losing to Jacobs and Morris in games they likely should have won.  Koe starting out 0-5 then taking away all play-off hopes from Howard and McEwen.  Calmly drawing the button against Howard same as he did in the 2010 Brier final.  Koe is now 4-13 against Howard since the 2010/11 Season and 7-21 overall.

Jennifer Jones winning was no real surprise.  You could certainly say the two teams that looked strongest all week came through and will likely be great reps in Sochi.  Who ever gets out of Northern Ontario this year better savour their Purple Hearts, they won't be available for many years to come.

I'm still working on a book and paper so I have limited time to commit (hence why I'm also late posting this), but a few thoughts:

1. I have no problem with Jacobs trying the double in the 9th end of the finals.  As I stated in a recent Curlingzone post:

Assume the shot for 1 is made 100% (it isn't quite that high).

Taking 1, Jacobs wins 89% of the time.

Attempting a double, a few things might happen.

Makes it for 2 - 99%
Morris Steals 1 - 78%
There's a slight chance he still gets one, if either a red spins to go between the 2 yellows or removes the yellow at the back of rings. Let's assume that's 0%.
He flashes. Let's assume that's 0%

Jacobs needs to make it about 50% of the time for it to make sense. Based on the margin for error for hitting a half rock, I'd say about every skip there could have called that shot and it would be correct.

However...

It was initially my guess that Morris wanted to him to try the double, as it created a chance to steal. Then he said on air "I didn't think he'd try it". 

I actually believe you want him to try it but the rock could have been put further away to be more difficult. If Jacobs takes 1, you're still losing 89% of the time (and that's against the average team, possibly even worse against Jacobs). You want to create some type of scenario where you might possibly steal, even if it creates a risk at losing now. The better option may have been to try a partial guard/come around on the yellow in the top twelve.

2. How did Howard give up 4 in the 8th end, when 3 up against Martin?   Laing missed a peel and Glenn missed both his shots.  So how could they have avoided four (a 40% Win Expectancy) and simply held Martin to 3 (a 78% WE)?   - One suggestion early in the end was Linda and Russ mentioning NOT to put two rocks in the rings with lead rocks.  Many teams will put first shot top four foot and  throw the second through rather than come in and give more "shrapnel" as Russ called it for the other team to use.  This did hurt them as the peel into the pile pushed their rock to the back twelve which was then frozen to by Kennedy.  I agree, if you're 3 up (of even 2 up) more than 1 rock in the four foot can hurt you more often than it helps.  I don't have data to support this but I've always felt this way.  Anyone remember Ferbey vs Dacey final end of the 2004 Brier? - Glenn's last shot.  Surprising that they discussed and didn't realize that throwing more weight would clear out the rocks.  Glenn was so focused on putting his shooter into a certain spot with a certain roll that they failed to notice that lighter weight and a miss by 2 inches would leave a shot for four.  If Glenn could throw it over again I suspect he throws more weight and makes sure of no worse than 3.  After he played the shot the camera caught him putting his head in his hand and whispering "Oh, Christ".  At that point, even divine intervention wasn't going to help them avoid a catastrophe, only a deuce in 10 could. - Glenn had a difficult shot for 2 in 10 but it still appeared to be the correct call. remember he needs to make it only 1 in 5 tries to be the same as going to the extra end. - TSN turning point - perhaps not even the 9th end but the last shot in the 8th when Glenn had a very makeable shot for 2 that would have put them up 4, and he wrecked on the front guard for only 1. -  Glenn later said it was the "worst loss of his life".  It's not the biggest loss in the biggest moment as a skip (I think the loss to Menard in 2006 finals was most shocking perhaps), but with it being the Trials and the way it happened, likely one that will linger for a long time.  In curling, these types of things just aren't suppose to happen, yet every player, even the best in the world, has a memory of a game like this.

3. Matt Dunstone and his Canadian Champion junior team was introduced to the crowd on Saturday during the 5th end break of the Semi-final.  They showed some great highlights on the jumbo-tron, but missed the most important one, this Manitoba curling commercial from the mid-80s starring his dad Dean Dunstone.  Matt naturally isn't visible in the video, but you can see the glint in Dean's eye.  You can also see that most hairdressers in the 80s had a cocaine addiction.

4. Mens Semi-final.  6th End.  It seemed like Kevin hit the in-between shot exactly.  Leaving his shooter in a terrible spot was the big mistake.  The nose on his blank attempt in 9 was interesting because of John's thoughts on where to put the rock.  No one was perhaps better suited to decide where Kevin would be most likely to bonk than his previous third.  Still a rare event and not expected.  Unfortunate result for Martin who had played as well or better than any player all week but was off on a couple of shots in this game.

Until next time...

ATH, 12/07/13: 2013 Roar of the Rings - Mens Semi-Final Media Scrum

Interviews begin with skip Kevin Martin, second Marc Kennedy and lead Ben Hebert.  Then follows fourth Jim Cotter and skip John Morris.

Check out this episode!

ATH, 12/06/13: 2013 Roar of the Rings - Womens Semi-Finals Media Scrum

Around The House will have all the recorded interviews in the media scrum following the Play-off games of the 2013 Roar of the Rings, Canadian Olympic Curling Trials.  Rachel Homan is first, followed by Sherry Middaugh.

Check out this episode!

Quick one before I head to the Patch...

It feels late, I'm exhausted, and I need to get to the Patch early for an American Brew so that I can leave early and get to bed to be rested for tomorrow morning and the oddly planned final draw of the Trials at 8:30 AM.  But I promised some quick analysis of the Mens and here it is:

The view for Brad Jacobs until Sunday, from the top

Epping, Howard, Stoughton and Koe are all out.  They may all be in the patch tonight, getting prepared for the morning draw.  Only Koe needs to "take it easy" as his game against Mike McEwen has ramifications for possible play-offs.  In 2009 I'm certain the final draw was Thursday night which made that night in the Patch one of the best ever.  All but three mens teams were done and having a grand ole time that night.  Now, half the field would rather enjoy the evenning without having to rise and shine to play a game they would prefer to skip (I mean "skip", not skip).

IF Martin wins against Morris, he gets hammer in the semi-final.

IF Morris loses that same game against his old skip, he will have to see what Mike McEwen does in his game against Kevin Koe.  

IF McEwen wins, he's in a tie-breaker IF Morris loses.

IF Morris wins, McEwen is out and Morris has hammer in a re-match against Martin.

IF Epping wins against Brad Jacobs, Epping will increase his stats in wins and losses, and Brad will not be the least bit disappointed.

And in the battle of the two oldest skips, in a game we all expected would matter, IF Jeff or Glenn win they get absolutely nothing.  It seems so strange that the TV game will NOT be the two best skips in the last 7 years (and pretty darn high on the list of greatest curlers even before that) not named Kevin Martin.

Never did come up with a caption for this one...

Some Expected Odds (and, like in the Womens analysis, I'm going to assume every team here is equal):

Odds that Jacobs goes to Sochi (58%).  They've looked strong all week and will be difficult to beat, especially with hammer (although they didn't need it last winter at the Brier or Worlds, until the final game).

Odds that Martin gets to finals = 50% and wins = 20%

Odds that Morris gets to final = 44% and wins = 17.6%

Odds that McEwen gets to final = 6% and wins = 2.4%

Oh, and to follow up on Womens odds:

Jones = 60% to win

Homan = 24%

Middaugh = 9.6%

Carey = 6.4%

Good luck to all and please, for those who need it, get some rest.  You have a big game tomorrow.

Going home again

There are many sayings about home and that once you leave you can't go again, or things change, or it's where the heart is, or something like that.  My home has been Alberta for 13 years and I was actually born in Montreal but my formative years were spent in the great city of Winnipeg, the "Paris of Canada" as Ron Burgundy put it earlier this week. 

Ron Burgundy and impecable posture

It's been a great week so far and I will try to make it less about me and more about the Curling, but please indulge me for a moment and trust me, we'll get there...

Day 1 included 13 hours of visiting old friends, their growing kids, and consuming several good beers, fine wines and a scotchy scotch for a nightcap (or two).  It also included a brief glimpse at the childhood basement of a curling friend, where much of my teen years were spent frolicing and listening to the smooth sounds of Collective Soul, Beastie Boys, Pink Floyd and Paula Abdul (yes, Ken's tastes were "straight up" eclectic).

How did we fit 128 people into that room?

On Day 1 of the Roar/Trials I ran into several people I had not seen in many years.  It amazed me how good they all looked and how, despite age and changes, Winnipeg seems to stay the same.  Maybe when the city's own band The Watchmen wrote Any Day Now it was as much about how the feeling of being back in Manitoba's capital takes you to yesterday and makes it feel familiar, as do the old friends and good company, even if everyone is 30 pounds heavier, battling hair loss and raising 2.3 kids.  Many great conversations about the Trials, kids, and who got cancer.

On Day 2 the nostalgia came back harder still when I met Rick Loewen, of The 2 Sports Guys.

These guys ran a local cable access show while I was in University and they were brilliant.  I even went to watch local tapings (usually along with 7 or 8 other rabid fans).  I immediately texted a friend (from Winnipeg) who asked me to remind Rick he still owes him an ugly lamp as a trivia prize.  Frightened of another potential 2 Sports Guy Nerd stalker, Rick made a quick getaway.

Winnipeg is also home to many of the curlers here this week.  17 of the 64 starting players are Manitobans of one flavour or another, and that doesn't include Jon Mead who was born in Saskatchewan but grew up in Winnipeg.  Six of the 8 mens teams has at least one Manitoban.  Dave Nedohin is a returnee who had all of his notable success in Alberta playing for the rival of his now skip, Kevin Martin.  Martin is off to a miraculous 5-0 start that could easily be 3-2.  Two wins on Tuesday appeared out of nowhere when Kevin Koe, in command at 4-2 with hammer playing 8, coughed up a steal of two, was forced to a single and then surrendered a deuce in 10 to lose.  His average Win Expectancy was 94.5% starting the 8th end.  Koe has fallen to 0-5 and they seem to be the snakebit team of the week.  Very close games, many that could have gone either way, but they landed on the wrong end of the scoreboard each time.

Martin had another miracle comback, this time taking 4 in the 9th end against Howard when they were 3 points down.  I'm still so struck by it I can't really remember how it all developed.  I hope to review the end as soon as I get my hands on a "PVR recording" (which still feels  stranger to me than saying that than Beta VHS).  Howard still had a chance, down one with hammer, but attempted a double raise for two.  Some thought he should have tried an angle tap for one but the raise seemed very make-able and he may still get one very often even if he doesn't score two.  Likely the right call.  Howard's odds to win starting the 9th end, 95.8%.  Martins odds of pulling of Both miraculous wins was roughly .23 % or less than 1/4 percent.  Ouch.

The draw to the button continues to be an exciting event that they should put on TV.  At 0-2, Stoughton came out against Epping and following their first practice, the first 3 players covered the pin.  Lead Mark Nichols then put it on the button, and hi-fives all around.  Jennifer Jones felt some nerves on her first draw for the hammer (which have clearly subsided as she sits 5-1).  On Sunday afternoon in front of a large Burgandy charged crowd she was called for a hogline violation.  This could have had major implications as tie breakers at the end of the week rank teams based on head to head wins first and then total hammer draws for the week.  I learned that a hog counts the same as missing the house but teams only use 6 of their 7 draws towards the ranking, so they can toss that one out.  Phew.  

Other early nerves seen from nearly everyone.  Homan had a hit for three against Val Sweeting during the 2nd end in the first draw, and gave up a steal of one.  That game launched the Sweeting team to a hot 3-0 start, but they have now regressed to 3-3 and need a win tomorrow to ensure a play-off or tie-breaker.

Now that we are nearing the play-offs, let's see how the weekend might shape up for the Women, we'll do the Men's tomorrow...

On the Womens side, Jones has clinched #1 and a bye into the finals with her steal in the 10th end against Homan, who drops to 3-3.  Jones will have a chance to move Nedohin to 3-4 tomorrow and possibly keep her out of the weekend, but maybe not.

Carey is the only team with 2 losses.  If they beat Middaugh, Nedohin defeats Jones, Lawton loses to Homan and Sweeting loses to Sonnenberg, then we have Carey in second place and a 5 way play-off for teams at 3-4 for the final spot.  Only Sonnenberg would be out of play at the end of the Round Robin (my fingers are crossed) 

Odds are as follows (I'm going to assume all teams ar 50/50 chance to win.  I clearly understand this isn't the case, but it's late, I'm tired and it's close enough):

Odds of 5 way play-off = 6 1/4 % (and Lawton qualifies and 7 of 8 teams make the play-offs, if you consider tie breaker games as play-offs - and I do)

Odds of 4 way play-off is the same 6 1/4%

Odds of 3 way play-off = 31 1/4 %

Odds of 2 way play-off is the same 31 1/4 %

Odds of no tie breakers = 25%

If a 3-3 team wins they are assured of a chance, and that's all anyone can hope for in this grueling event.

So you can come home again, you just can't buy Canadian beer when you do...because the CANADIAN Olympic Curling Trials only offers American brands:

Coors, Coors Light and MGD?  Where's my Old Style Pilsner?